Tag: Arbitrage
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Traders Make Money in Prediction Markets
What prediction markets are and why people trade Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket let participants bet on the outcomes of real-world events. The contracts, often settled by a simple yes/no payout, create a probabilistic market where the price of a contract reflects the market’s current probability assessment of the event. For traders, the idea…
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Efficient Market Theory: Profiting From Short-Term Moves
Understanding the Efficient Market Theory in Practice The Efficient Market Theory (EMH) posits that asset prices instantly reflect all available information, making it exceptionally difficult to beat the market through stock picking or timing. For many investors, this leads to a preference for passive, diversified portfolios—broad stock indices and bonds—that aim to capture market returns…
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Stock Market Distortions: Profiting From Short-Term Market Chaos
Introduction: The Theory and the Reality of Market Distortions The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that stock prices instantly reflect all available information, making consistent beats to the market by stock picking or timing nearly impossible. I share this belief and often recommend a core portfolio of market indexes and bonds. Yet real-world markets aren’t…
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When the Market Bleeds: Profiting from Short-Term Stock Mispricings
While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that prices always reflect all available information, real-world markets periodically overreact or underreact to events. Fear, optimism, and cognitive biases can create mispricings that savvy investors aim to exploit in the short term. This article examines how volatility can generate opportunities, the risks involved, and practical paths for…
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Le Penalty de Toulouse Face au PSG : Un Erreur d’Arbitrage Révélée
Le match entre Toulouse et le Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) a récemment été marqué par un incident de penalty qui ne cesse de faire parler de lui. En effet, la Direction de l’arbitrage a pris la parole pour clarifier une situation qui, selon eux, n’aurait jamais dû mener à un retrait du penalty initialement accordé à…