Markets Live: ASX Set to Rise Amid Global Tensions
The Australian share market is poised to open higher, with ASX futures suggesting a 0.8% gain in early trade, even as global markets wrestle with fresh tensions between the United States and China. Traders are weighing the latest moves from Washington and Beijing against a mixed backdrop of domestic policy changes and international risk appetite.
Across the Pacific, Wall Street experienced a volatile session after a provocative post from the US president regarding China. The afternoon swing showed how sensitive investors are to geopolitical signals and how quickly sentiment can reverse in the face of new headlines. The S&P 500 briefly slumped before a partial recovery, only to finish the day modestly negative. In that environment, gold again emerged as a safe-haven beneficiary, with prices moving higher as risk-off mechanisms kicked in.
Key Drivers for the ASX Today
1) Global risk sentiment: The reaction to Trump’s latest remarks continues to ripple through equity markets. While the ASX may start firmer, the underlying tone remains cautious as traders reassess exposure to US-China tensions and potential supply-chain disruptions.
2) Commodities and the AUD: The Australian dollar weakened, slipping to around 64.8 US cents, as risk appetite cooled. Gold hit a fresh intra-day high, underscoring the demand for safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical anxiety. These moves can influence Australian exporters and the broader market tone for the day.
3) Domestic policy context: Investors are closely watching Australia’s policy landscape, including proposed changes to superannuation and financial regulation, which could materially affect household wealth and bank fundamentals. The interplay between fiscal policy and market confidence matters for the domestic equity complex.
Superannuation Reforms Move Forward
One of the most debated topics in Australian policy circles is the government’s plan to adjust the taxation of retirement savings. If the legislation passes, balances above certain thresholds could attract higher tax rates: 30% on balances above $3 million and 40% on balances above $10 million. The aim, proponents say, is to discourage disproportionately large retirement funds and push the system toward broader equity across generations.
University of Canberra tax expert Professor Robert Breunig recently described the proposal as a strong signal from policy makers that very large SMSFs could become a “legacy issue.” The policy shift has sparked debate about incentives for saving, retirement planning, and the administration of super funds. For markets, the changes introduce a new dimension for wealth management and long-term investment strategies, potentially affecting both investors’ behavior and fund flows.
APRA and Westpac: A Mark of Regulatory Progress
In another major development, the banking regulator APRA confirmed that Westpac no longer needs to hold the extra capital previously required as part of a multi-year risk transformation. After a period of scrutiny over anti-money laundering controls, Westpac’s governance and risk management improvements have earned the regulator’s trust, reducing capital buffers tied to the court-enforceable undertaking.
The decision, while positive for Westpac, also signals continued vigilance by APRA toward capital resilience and prudent risk management in the broader banking system. Analysts expect the bank to maintain a strong capital position as it finalizes its reforms, helping reassure investors about stability in a sector that often drives the market’s risk-on/risk-off cycles.
What This Means for Markets Today
With the ASX set to open higher, investors will be watching for momentum: will today’s gains hold in a day still shadowed by US-China tensions and domestic policy uncertainty? The dynamic between external shocks and internal reform will shape trading, as traders calibrate exposure to sectors most likely to benefit from any policy clarity and those most exposed to global trade dynamics.
In the near term, traders should note that volatility could persist. While gold’s bid reflects ongoing risk aversion, the Australian market could find support from positive earnings surprises, improved risk management across banks, and any further detail on superannuation reform. Currency moves and commodity prices will likely contribute to the intraday rhythm, affecting equities with commodity linkage and export orientation.
Bottom Line
Markets Live: ASX is expected to edge higher, even as Wall Street’s reaction to geopolitical tensions reminds investors that global risk remains elevated. Domestic policy developments, especially around superannuation and bank regulation, will be crucial to watch as the day unfolds. Traders should stay nimble and prepared for rapid shifts in sentiment as new headlines emerge.
