Overview: A flat start ahead for Sensex and Nifty amid mixed global cues
The Indian stock market is expected to open on a muted note on Tuesday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 showing a flat to marginally positive bias. After a choppy session on Monday, traders are weighing mixed signals from global markets, domestic earnings, and evolving trade rhetoric. The latest backdrop features gains on Wall Street, a cautious Asian session, and domestic inflation readings that have cooled to multi-year lows, adding nuance to the near-term trajectory for Indian equities.
1) Gift Nifty signals a flat open
The Gift Nifty was hovering around 25,312, signaling a near-flat start for the traditional Nifty 50. This premium over the spot futures suggests limited directional enthusiasm, with traders waiting for clarity on earnings and policy cues. A measured start could give markets room to react to quarterly results rather than chase strong moves at the opening bell.
2) Global cues: Mixed Asian markets, US optimism
Asian markets traded mixed as investors digested Wall Street’s strength from the previous session. While the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posted gains, regional bourses remained cautious. On Monday, US indices rose on softer tones in trade tensions and a conciliatory stance from Washington, easing near-term worries about a sharper global slowdown. The Nasdaq’s one-day surge underscored the resilience of tech-led gains, though investors remain alert to evolving tariff rhetoric and policy shifts.
3) Gaza peace deal and its macro implications
The signing of the Gaza ceasefire deal by US, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey added a geopolitical tailwind, at least for risk appetite in some markets. Reports highlighted the release of hostages and detainees as part of the accord, offering a constructive backdrop for global sentiment. While this is not a direct driver for Indian equities, calmer geopolitics can support risk-on flows and keep volatility in check.
4) US-China trade frictions: port charges and market impact
Reuters indicated that new port charges on US-owned vessels could begin, with China stating some exemptions for Chinese-built ships. The development keeps trade-related headlines in focus and reminds investors that tariff dynamics could influence global growth and earnings in the coming quarters.
5) Domestic inflation cools, CPI hits new low
India’s CPI inflation declined to an eight-year low of 1.54% in a recent reading, easing concerns about price pressures and creating headroom for policy continuity. This cooling aligns with global disinflation trends and supports a more stable domestic growth backdrop, aiding earnings visibility for consumer and discretionary sectors.
6) HCL Tech Q2 results: a positive earnings set
HCL Technologies reported a 10.2% QoQ rise in net profit to ₹4,236 crore and a 5.2% QoQ jump in revenue to ₹31,942 crore. EBIT rose 11.3%, with margins improving to 17.25%. The company also declared an interim dividend of ₹12 per share, signaling confidence in the demand environment for IT services.
7) Commodities: Gold and silver hit multi-year highs
Gold prices strengthened as investors sought safe-haven assets amid macro uncertainty. Spot gold nudged higher, with silver prices also edging up to record territory in some sessions. The precious metals complex remains a focal point for portfolio diversification and inflation hedging in a period of fluctuating risk sentiment.
8) The dollar and currencies: stability amid cautious mood
The US dollar index held steady as markets priced in easing tensions around trade. The yen weakened slightly, while the euro and pound traded in narrow ranges. Currency stability helps limit volatility in dollar-denominated commodities and global debt servicing costs for emerging markets like India.
9) Crude oil outlook: firming on demand signals
Crude benchmarks rose modestly on signs of a thaw in trade tensions and ongoing supply considerations. Brent and US WTI advanced, reinforcing energy market dynamics that can influence inflation expectations and industrial input costs in India.
10) What this means for investors today
For traders, the immediate path appears range-bound, with a preference for stock-specific ideas as Q2 earnings roll in and tariff developments continue to evolve. The key support and resistance levels will likely evolve as earnings surprises and macro data feed into decision-making. Domestic fundamentals, foreign inflows, and the global policy backdrop will collectively shape the risk-reward profile in near-term trade.
Bottom line
Markets are navigating a landscape of mixed signals: softer domestic inflation, robust US earnings, geopolitical developments in Gaza, and evolving US-China tariff chatter. While momentum remains cautious, a well-balanced approach focusing on quality earnings and sectors with secular growth could guide the Indian stock market through the week.
