Singapore’s Q3 2025 GDP: Modest growth amid sectoral shifts
Singapore’s economy expanded by 2.9% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, according to advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on October 14. While the growth figure marks a continuation of positive momentum, it also shows a slowdown from the 4.5% expansion recorded in Q2, highlighting a more mixed performance as the country navigates global headwinds and domestic constraints.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.3% in Q3, slightly slower than the 1.5% quarterly growth seen in the previous quarter. The MTI cautioned that advance estimates are based on data from the first two months of the quarter and are subject to revision as more comprehensive data become available.
Sector-by-sector picture: Manufacturing flags, services and construction vary
The manufacturing sector, a bellwether for Singapore’s export-driven economy, was flat in Q3 after a 5% expansion in Q2. MTI noted that declines in biomedical manufacturing and general manufacturing weighed on overall output, even as other manufacturing clusters posted gains. Despite the softer quarter, the sector still posted a quarter-on-quarter rise of 6.1%, a turnaround from a 0.7% contraction in Q2, underscoring the uneven momentum within manufacturing.
Construction also displayed divergent signals. While overall output grew by 3.1% in Q3, up from 6.2% in Q2, the sector contracted 1.2% on a quarterly seasonally adjusted basis. MTI attributed the mixed result to shifts in both public and private construction activity, with a pullback in some sub-segments offsetting gains in others.
Within the services cluster, the combined wholesale and retail trade and transportation and storage sectors rose 2.5% in Q3, easing from the 4.9% growth in Q2. The ministry pointed to the machinery, equipment and supplies segment as a key driver for wholesale trade, while the transportation and storage segment benefited from the water and air transport sub-segments. However, on a quarterly basis, this group contracted by 1.2%, signaling softer momentum after a robust Q2.
Meanwhile, the information and communications, finance and insurance, and professional services bloc grew by 4.4% in Q3, modestly higher than the 4.3% expansion in Q2. Growth in IT and information services, as well as head offices and business representative offices, helped lift the professional services component. In the finance and insurance area, banking and related services contributed to the quarter’s gains, though the rate of expansion moderated slightly compared with Q2.
Other services sectors—accommodation and food services, real estate, administrative and support services, and other services—also contributed to the overall improvement, expanding by 4.1% in Q3 after a 4% rise in Q2. The accommodation segment, in particular, benefited from higher international visitor arrivals, supporting consumer-facing services and linked sectors in the tourism value chain.
What the numbers mean for Singapore’s economy
The Q3 2025 advance estimates reflect continued growth but with a more cautious trajectory compared with the previous quarter. MTI analysts emphasize that the economy remains exposed to external demand conditions, cost pressures, and supply chain dynamics. The upgrade to the full-year forecast earlier in August—from a 0% to 2% band to a 1.5% to 2.5% range—indicated confidence in a resilient foundation across services and selective manufacturing strengths.
Markets and policymakers will be watching upcoming data for revisions to the quarterly figures and for signals on whether the more modest Q3 pace can be sustained through the end of the year. If domestic demand holds and international travel stabilizes, Singapore could maintain a path of gradual expansion, supported by the improvement in services and a steadier financial sector performance.
Outlook and considerations
Key risks include external demand softness, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions that could influence trade and investment. Authorities may respond with targeted measures to support productivity, digitalization, and labor market resilience to sustain the growth trajectory. For investors and businesses, the Q3 data underscore a cautious but ongoing recovery, with opportunities concentrated in technology-enabled services, logistics, and high-value manufacturing clusters that can weather global fluctuations.
