Warning signs from the Global Burden of Disease study
A landmark Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, drawing on more than 300,000 data sources and 16,500 scientists, warns of an emerging crisis: higher death rates among teenagers and young adults in many parts of the world. While overall global mortality has declined and life expectancy has recovered since the Covid-19 pandemic, the report shows stubborn and widening gaps within regions and among age groups, with adolescence and young adulthood proving particularly vulnerable.
Where the risk is greatest—and why
The study highlights a mosaic of causes by region. In North America and parts of Latin America, rising deaths among youths are tightly linked to suicide and the consumption of alcohol and drugs, underscoring a mental health crisis that has been intensifying in recent years. Dr Christopher Murray of IHME described the trend as a wake‑up call, noting that debates around social media, electronic devices, and broader societal pressures complicate efforts to identify how best to intervene.
In sub‑Saharan Africa, the narrative shifts toward infectious diseases, injuries, and newly recognized patterns in younger age groups. African researchers found that deaths among children aged five to 14 have been higher than previously estimated, while girls and women aged 15 to 29 face a death rate 61% higher than earlier figures, driven largely by pregnancy‑ and childbirth‑related risks, road injuries, and meningitis. The data point to a heavy burden of both communicable and non‑communicable diseases among youth on the continent.
A wider health shift: chronic disease and mental health on the rise
Across the globe, chronic conditions such as heart disease and diabetes now account for two‑thirds of all ill health, reflecting a broader epidemiological transition. The study also notes a surge in mental health problems, with anxiety and depression particularly affecting young people in high‑income settings. While the rise in mental health disorders has drawn attention for years, experts emphasize that the precise causes are complex and multifactorial, complicating policy responses.
Preventable risks and a call to action
The authors estimate that about half of the world’s disease burden is preventable, driven by modifiable risks such as high blood pressure, air pollution, smoking, and obesity. The findings suggest that strategic investments in prevention—particularly youth‑centered public health programs—could curb a large share of premature deaths and disability. The study’s co‑authors urged policymakers to design integrated, youth‑focused health systems that can respond to both infectious threats and the rising tide of non‑communicable diseases among younger populations.
Global health policy implications
Experts warn that recent reductions in international aid could threaten progress in low‑income regions where many health gains have depended on external funding for primary care, vaccines, and essential medicines. Emmanuela Gakidou of IHME stressed that the momentum in these regions is fragile and at risk of reversal without sustained investment. GBD researchers also highlighted geographic disparities, with life expectancy ranging from 83 years in high‑income regions to 62 in sub‑Saharan Africa as of 2023.
Voices from the field
Health leaders from Africa and beyond emphasize the need for stronger, youth‑centred health systems. Dr Githinji Gitahi of Amref Health Africa called for integrated care that addresses both infectious diseases and the rising prevalence of non‑communicable diseases among young people. He warned against siloed approaches and urged nutrition education and regulation of food environments to support healthier lifestyles for urban youth.
Looking ahead
As governments and health institutions review the 2023 data, the central message is clear: the health of today’s youth shapes tomorrow’s population health and economic resilience. The study’s authors and advocates urge swift, strategic action to protect young people—through mental health support, safer environments, accessible reproductive health services, and robust primary care that can adapt to shifting disease patterns. The wake‑up call is loud, and the time to respond is now.
