Bihar 2025: A New Equation in NDA Seat-Sharing
The political landscape in Bihar is shifting ahead of the 2025 assembly elections as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) members decide to contest an equal number of seats. The decision, announced by the NDA’s Bihar unit, signals a marked departure from 2020 when the alliance had a different power balance. The key change this time is the entry of Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV), which has altered the traditional seat math within the ruling coalition.
The new math: Equal seats for BJP and JDU
According to a post shared on X by Sanjay Kumar Jha, the JDU and BJP will contest an equal number of seats in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections. This move reflects a rebalanced approach aimed at maintaining unity within the NDA while addressing the shifting political ground in the state.
Historically, the 2020 election saw the JDU lead with 115 seats, and the BJP contesting around 110. The new plan reduces the JDU’s tilt and also alters the BJP’s traditional share, aligning both major NDA partners with parity. The change is underscored by the inclusion of Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV), which previously held a larger block of seats when it was part of the NDA’s dynamics.
Impact of Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) entry
Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) joining the NDA adds a new voice to the coalition’s regional strategy. While Paswan’s party once featured prominently in the seat calculus, its entry into the 2025 equation offers a platform for broader bloc support, potentially influencing voter alignment across constituencies. The alliance has stated its readiness to defend Nitish Kumar’s leadership, with the aim of securing a “massive majority.”
What happened in 2020, and how it informs 2025
In 2020, the NDA’s seat distribution was spread across five partners: JDU, BJP, VIP, HAM(S), and the LJP (undivided). VIP, then aligned with the NDA, contested 11 seats, while the HAM(S) alliance led by Jitan Ram Manjhi had seven seats. The LJP (undivided) stood with a large number of seats, reflecting a different balance of power within the coalition. Post-2024 Lok Sabha results, Manjhi and Paswan have both moved into central government roles, a shift that resonates in Bihar’s state-level calculations.
Phase-wise voting and the political calendar
Bihar voters will cast ballots in two phases on November 6 and November 11, with vote counting slated for November 14. The staged voting pattern often influences campaign strategies, candidate selection, and the sequencing of seat announcements. The NDA’s emphasis on a balanced seat distribution suggests a concerted effort to consolidate support across diverse regions of Bihar.
Opposition dynamics: INDIA bloc and the seat-sharing puzzle
The opposition, led by the INDIA bloc comprising the RJD, Congress, and allied parties, has not yet released a formal seat-sharing formula. As the NDA settles into its equal-seat framework, the opposition faces the challenge of crafting a coherent and attractive alternative coalition strategy. The evolving seat distribution within the NDA could either complicate or clarify the opposition’s planning, depending on how alliances and candidate selections unfold in the coming weeks.
As Bihar moves toward the 2025 assembly elections, the equal-seat plan between the JDU and BJP, compounded by Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) entry, marks a pivotal moment in the state’s political narrative. Voters will closely watch how these power-sharing dynamics translate into campaigning, candidate selection, and, ultimately, the assembly results.
