Introduction: The deadline pressure and the race for deals
With the AFL trade deadline looming on Wednesday night, clubs are juggling big asks, delicate negotiations, and the possibility of last‑minute pivots. The 23 major deals still on the table reflect a season of strategic moves, where veteran captains, rising stars, and coveted assets could reshape premiership hopes. Here is the state of play on the key negotiations, what each side is seeking, and what could unfold in the final hours.
Zach Merrett: Essendon captain in the Hawthorn orbit
Merrett’s name dominates the late‑stage chatter as he eyes a move to Hawthorn. Essendon has repeatedly signaled that they won’t part with their captain easily, making any trade require a compelling, multi‑faceted package. Hawthorn has signaled willingness to involve a third club to bolster its selections or players, but no official trade request has been lodged. Expect the Hawthorn bid to hinge on a no‑nonsense deal that could include a mix of pick 9, a future first, and perhaps another asset, if a club‑shuffle delivers the right balance for the Bombers.
Charlie Curnow: The Blues’ hard line, Cats’ big offers
Curnow remains a central talking point as Geelong pushes with three first‑round picks, while Carlton holds out for premium value. The Blues’ stance is clear: they won’t move their two‑time Coleman Medalist without a top‑tier return. Sydney is weighing its own package, with players such as Ollie Florent and Will Hayward potentially part of a broader deal. Curnow has reportedly completed medicals with both Geelong and Sydney, underscoring how sensitive the negotiations are to the precise package on offer.
Other marquee names and ongoing negotiations
Christian Petracca and Melbourne’s pursuit of Gold Coast picks No. 7 and 8 shows the Suns’ insistence on top‑end selections, while Perth’s academy targets loom in the background. The deal would likely involve late picks and draft concessions to assist Gold Coast’s long‑term strategy.
Rowan Marshall and St Kilda’s stance against selling their ruckman have kept Geelong’s chase alive but fragile. If the Saints entertain a late‑hour reversal, a high‑value pick package for Marshall could emerge, but timing remains critical.
Callum Ah Chee vs. Adelaide Brisbane standoff continues, with both sides holding firm on picks. Ah Chee’s contract status makes this one a longer‑form battle to resolve, likely extending into the final hours as both clubs assess their draft boards.
AFL-wide dynamics: mid‑season reshuffles and the draft‑ahead strategy
The market is not just about specific player swaps but about how clubs plan their drafts and long‑term lists. Several trades could be bundled with three‑way deals to optimize salary cap impact, draft position, and list balance. Names such as Clayton Oliver, Ollie Florent, and Jamarra Ugle‑Hagan illustrate how teams weigh immediate needs against future potential, with clubs often prioritizing youth development and academy targets in this window.
Projected outcomes and what fans should watch
As the clock narrows, expect several moves to crystallize in the last 24 hours. Teams will balance sentiment with strategy: Essendon protecting its captain’s value, Carlton seeking premium compensation for Curnow, and Sydney weighing its broader package. Players like Jye Simpkin, Jai Serong, and Elijah Hollands illustrate the broader reshuffle’s breadth, where each club weighs their own draft leverage and list health.
Bottom line for supporters
The 23 major deals define a bustling, high‑stakes period where every pick, every contract year, and every medical can flip the balance of power. Fans should monitor official club announcements and AFL.com.au updates as Wednesday’s deadline approaches, because the most consequential negotiations are often the ones that refuse to reveal themselves until the final hours.
