Overview: Connolly Takes Early Lead in Áras Race
Independent candidate Catherine Connolly appears to hold a substantial lead in the race for Áras an Uachtaráin according to a new Business Post/Red C poll. The poll, conducted online among 1,001 adults, suggests Connolly has 36% support, with Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys at 25% and Jim Gavin, whose name remains on the ballot after his withdrawal, at 12%. A notable 27% said they are still undecided.
Poll Details and Context
The survey was conducted between October 2 and October 7, a window that captures the immediate aftermath of Gavin’s late Sunday withdrawal (October 5). The margin of error is +/- 3%, meaning the race remains fluid, especially among the sizeable undecided bloc.
These figures come from a national online survey of 1,001 respondents, designed to gauge early sentiment in the presidential contest. While fieldwork occurred before and after the withdrawal announcement, the data are presented as a snapshot of current voter intentions as the campaign moves forward.
What the Numbers Might Mean
Connolly’s 36% suggests a comfortable field position for the Independent candidate, potentially benefiting from a broad cross-section of Irish voters seeking a non-partisan alternative in the presidency. Humphreys’ 25% places her in a solid second, with Gavin trailing and still on ballots due to the ballot paper inclusion. The 27% undecided indicates that a large portion of the electorate is still in play, with candidate preference likely to shift as campaigns, debates, and last-minute endorsements unfold.
Implications for Campaigns
For Connolly, maintaining and consolidating momentum will be key in the coming weeks. As an Independent, she may benefit from perceived integrity and cross-party appeal—factors often highlighted by voters seeking a unifying presidential figure. Campaigns typically respond to high undecided numbers with strategic appearances, issue-focused messaging, and targeted outreach to key demographics.
Humphreys faces the challenge of converting a quarter of voters toward her platform in a race that has shown volatility since Gavin’s exit. In a race where the ballot lists a withdrawn candidate, campaign teams often stress clarity and availability, encouraging voters to focus on their preferred option rather than the logistics of the ballot paper.
What Comes Next
With the contest narrowing toward the finish line, analysts will be watching for shifts in public opinion following debates, policy announcements, and any late endorsements. The undecided bloc (27%) is the most important swing factor in this poll, and the next round of surveys will reveal whether Connolly can extend her lead or if Humphreys and others close the gap.
Notes on Methodology
The Business Post/Red C poll used an online survey of 1,001 adults, conducted from October 2–7. The reported margin of error is +/- 3%. Polls capture sentiment at a moment in time and should be interpreted alongside other data sources and ongoing campaign events.
With the presidency at stake in a race that blends tradition with contemporary political dynamics, voters will be watching how each candidate frames their vision for the country’s future as the campaign intensifies in the weeks ahead.
