Quedan Exits PAR, No Direct Threat Yet
Tropical Storm Quedan, internationally known as Nakri, has officially exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as of 11 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 9, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). While Quedan no longer poses a direct threat to the country, weather forecasting teams warn that the storm’s departure does not mark the end of unsettled conditions for many communities.
PAGASA weather specialist Grace Castañeda noted that as of around 3 a.m. on Friday, the storm was located about 1,350 kilometers east-northeast of extreme Northern Luzon. It was moving northwestward at roughly 20 kilometers per hour, continuing to drift away from the Philippine landmass. This trajectory reduces the risk of landfall, yet forecasters remain vigilant for changes in intensity or direction that could influence wind and rain patterns in the weeks ahead.
New LPA Detected, Not a Threat to Enter PAR
Simultaneously, a new low-pressure area (LPA) was identified about 335 kilometers west-northwest of Pag-asa Island, Kalayaan, Palawan. Castañeda emphasized that this LPA is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone or move into PAR as it progresses westward away from the country. While not forecast to intensify into a tropical system, LPAs can still influence weather through their associated troughs and wind patterns.
How the LPA’s Trough Affects Weather
The trough associated with the LPA is expected to interact with the prevailing windflow in the region. A southwesterly windflow is forecast to continue sweeping across parts of the Philippines, contributing to cloudier skies and periods of rain in several areas. This pattern means more frequent showers and thunderstorms, especially in regions sheltered by landmasses or facing the open sea.
Impact Across Regions
Over the next 24 hours, the trough is likely to bring cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms to Metro Manila, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and the Bicol Region. The metropolitan capital and its neighboring provinces should prepare for sudden downpours that could affect travel, outdoor activities, and small-craft operations at beaches and coastal ports.
The southwest windflow will also affect the Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan, maintaining a pattern of cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. While widespread heavy rainfall is not immediately anticipated, localized downpours could cause brief disruptions, including minor flooding in flood-prone areas and poor visibility on certain road sections.
What Residents Should Do
Even without a direct tropical cyclone threat, PAGASA emphasizes vigilance. Moderate to heavy rainfall or severe thunderstorms can trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in vulnerable communities near riverbanks, urban areas with poor drainage, and hillside neighborhoods. Residents should monitor weather advisories, secure loose objects, and prepare emergency kits with essentials such as drinking water, medications, and flashlights.
motorists are urged to exercise caution during periods of heavy rain and to adjust travel plans if forecasts indicate localized flooding or reduced road visibility. Farmers and fishermen should stay informed about sudden weather changes that could affect soil moisture, crop health, and nearshore conditions for small vessel operations.
Looking Ahead
As Quedan leaves PAR, meteorologists will continue to monitor the evolving weather system for any shifts in intensity or trajectory. The LPA’s influence on regional rainfall and the persistence of the southwest windflow will shape the coming days’ weather. While no immediate tropical cyclone threat to the Philippines is forecast, people across affected regions should stay prepared for occasional rain showers and the potential for localized flooding.
