Winter’s early arrival? A snapshot of Canada’s 2025-26 season
As Canadians brace for the annual first flakes, the 2025-26 winter looms with a blend of warmth lingering into late autumn and the potential for a sharp turn to cold in November. Early observations show an overall warm pattern through much of October, particularly from the Rockies to the Maritimes, with a series of record-highs and several October temperature records in multiple provinces. The big question is how long this mild spell will persist and when winter will truly lock in.
Early-winter signals: what the jet stream is telling us
Forecast discussions point to a shift in the global jet pattern that could interrupt the ongoing mild spell. While October will continue to feature intervals of above-average temperatures, quick intrusions of cold air are expected to help nudge the country toward winter readiness. In November, an abrupt transition is anticipated as the warm pattern breaks down and near-normal to colder-than-normal conditions begin to dominate through December.
What this means for travel and ski season
For ski resorts, the outlook suggests a potential start to the season on schedule in many regions. However, travelers planning trips before or during the holiday weeks should monitor updated forecasts, as week-to-week variations are likely and significant snowfall could still hinge on late-autumn weather patterns.
Winter pattern drivers: La Niña and the North Pacific wildcard
A weak La Niña is anticipated this winter, a factor that historically distributes cold conditions unevenly across Canada. The more common outcome has Western Canada bearing the brunt of the cold, while Eastern regions enjoy milder spells. Yet, there have been La Niña winters when Eastern Canada faced extended cold spells or, conversely, milder periods that flip the national pattern for weeks at a time.
Beyond La Niña, the North Pacific Ocean remains the crucial wild card. In recent weeks, unusually warm waters dominated the North Pacific, a condition often linked to a blocking jet stream that can unleash Arctic air across much of the country. At the same time, such warmth can prompt thaws. If warm anomalies at the water’s surface retreat toward the west of British Columbia and Alaska, the cold may stay focused in Western Canada, reducing the likelihood of a broad national thaw. Still, pockets of warmth from the eastern United States could push milder spells into the Great Lakes and Maritime regions from time to time.
A preliminary look at December–February temperatures
The current outlook suggests most of Canada will see near-normal or colder-than-normal temperatures for the core winter months, with Atlantic Canada and portions of northwestern Canada as exception zones where milder periods could appear. Even so, high-impact winter weather remains a possibility across the map. In general, southern Canada could experience a notable stretch of milder weather during the heart of the season, even as the overall pattern tilts colder in many areas.
What to watch in the coming weeks
The forecast remains a work in progress. The key drivers to watch include the evolution of the La Niña phase, the North Pacific’s temperature anomalies, and how these factors interact with the jet stream. The Weather Network (and similar outlets) will continue to refine the three-month window through December, January, and February, with a final, more definitive winter forecast released later in November.
Bottom line: a winter full of contrasts
Canada’s 2025-26 winter is shaping up as a season of contrasts—intermittent warmth testing nerves before a potentially sharp cold snap. While overall trends point to near-normal or colder conditions for much of the country, the exact timing and intensity of cold, snow, and thaws will hinge on the North Pacific and the nuanced behavior of La Niña. Stay tuned for updates as November narrows the uncertainties and brings the first real signs of winter across the nation.
