A Remarkable Comeback for Eastern Australian Humpback Whales
The eastern Australian humpback whale population is now estimated to exceed 50,000 individuals, according to a preliminary report to Australia’s federal climate and environment department. This figure surpasses the estimated pre-whaling population from the early 1900s by roughly 20,000 whales and aligns with predictions that the population could peak in the current decade. The recovery has surprised scientists and underscores the resilience of this iconic species along Australia’s east coast.
How the Recovery Was Measured
Researchers compiled decades of observations and photographs submitted to the HappyWhale tracking catalogue, drawing on close to 700 researchers, whale-watching operators, and citizen scientists. The 2024 estimate rests on a 40-year dataset with more than 15,000 individual sightings, which were analyzed through statistical models to project total abundance. Marine scientist Dr. Wally Franklin, who co-founded the Ocean project and has studied eastern Australian humpbacks for more than three decades, described the numbers as a near-miracle.
From Near Extinction to a New High
Whaling drove humpbacks to the brink of extinction in the mid-20th century. Contemporary accounts from Hobart in the early 1800s describe whales filling the Derwent River, with residents affected by their sheer presence. By the early 1960s, researchers estimate only about 150 of the original 30,000 eastern Australian humpbacks remained. After the International Whaling Commission banned Southern Hemisphere humpback whaling in 1963, the population began a gradual recovery, eventually climbing to about 25,000 in 2015. The latest data suggest a population possibly reaching 60,000 in 2024, a trajectory that far outpaced expectations.
Why This Population Has Rebounded So Strongly
Experts offer several possible explanations for the standout recovery of eastern Australian humpbacks. First, Australia’s long coastline provides a mosaic of habitats that benefit mothers and calves during the vulnerable early years. Second, the eastern group appears highly adaptable, with some mothers giving birth in cold temperate waters rather than only tropical regions. Adelaide Dedden, a marine scientist at the University of New South Wales, notes that humpbacks breed every two to three years, whereas some other whale populations, like southern rights, have longer calving intervals that slow recovery. In addition, there may be less competition for food along these coasts as populations rebound, supporting higher survival and reproductive rates.
The Conservation Context and What Comes Next
As the eastern humpback population approaches carrying capacity—the maximum density the environment can support—scientists caution that growth may slow. This outlook heightens the importance of responsible coastal experiences and protected whale habitats. With abundance comes increased potential for human–whale interactions along busy coastal waters. Experts emphasize the need for adherence to safety guidelines: maintaining at least 100 meters from adult whales and 300 meters when calves are present. These measures help ensure energy reserves aren’t depleted by repeated disturbances as whales navigate migration and calving cycles.
Practical Guidance for Observers and Tour Operators
For people who encounter humpbacks, the best approach is to let the whales approach on their own terms. Visitors and operators should prioritize respectful distance, minimize unnecessary boat movements, and appreciate the opportunity to observe these giants without disrupting their natural behavior. With a robust population, there are now more chances than ever to witness the eastern Australian humpbacks on their annual migration, whether from shorelines, boats, or purpose-built vantage points.
Final Thoughts
The eastern Australian humpback whale population’s resurgence is a rare conservation success story, illustrating how bans on whaling combined with habitat protection and careful management can restore a species once on the brink. As researchers refine the numbers and monitor trends, the focus remains on keeping the coast safe for these magnificent travelers while preserving the essential marine ecosystems they depend on.
