Introduction: The Ord Valley dream and its erosion
For decades, Australia looked north to the Ord Valley as a potential powerhouse of food production. Abundant water, vast stretches of undeveloped land, and proximity to Asia once painted a picture of a northern food bowl feeding the country and beyond. Today, that vision is being scrutinized as climate change, coupled with economic and logistical pressures, tests the region’s farming futures.
The man on the land: Parker Poynt Packhouse’s long view
Quentin Parker, founder of Parker Poynt Packhouse, has spent nearly four decades in the Ord Valley. His property, home to around 460 mango trees, sits in a region renowned for having the highest average temperatures among mango-growing zones in the north and roughly 3,000 kilometres from Perth. Now retired yet deeply connected to the land, Parker reports fruit yields that would have seemed extraordinary in the past but have dwindled over time.
“I’ve lived through the boom years and the uneasy ones,” Parker said. “2011 was the biggest year. I did 123,500 trays that year. And then, the following year, it dropped to about 70,000. I thought my throat had been cut.”
In 2024, Parker processed around 2,500 trays. This year, he anticipates packing merely 500. The decline, he suggests, is not a single culprit but a mix of climate signals and global market dynamics. “I don’t know, we’re doing something wrong with the world,” he quips, acknowledging uncertainty while recognizing a troubling trend.
Climate risk and the toll on northern crops
The idea of an expanding northern food bowl was built on large-scale irrigation and crop diversification near places like Lake Argyle and Lake Kununurra. Yet, climate science frames a more tempered future. The National Climate Risk Assessment highlights rising hazards for northern Australia as temperatures climb. Environmental geography expert Steve Turton notes the region is nearing the “thermal limits” for key crops such as mangoes and avocados. A lack of sufficient cool nights during winter can impede flowering and fruit set, complicating orchard planning and yields.
Reframing the North: from broad bowl to targeted opportunities
Even as policymakers and researchers recalibrate expectations, the consensus among experts is shifting away from a grandiose north-as-food-bowl narrative. Allan Dale, chief scientist at the Cooperative Research Centre for Developing Northern Australia, describes a transition from a global, sweeping ambition to a more precise, opportunity-driven approach. “About 10 years ago, the idea of the north being the biggest, best food bowl for the wider south-east Asian region and beyond was really modified,” Dale said. The North’s role is now framed as a strategic agricultural development hub—crucial for regional resilience and Australia’s overall climate risk management.
What it means for the idea of a northern food bowl
The new framing emphasizes resilience, collaboration, and sustainable practices. Dr. Dale stresses the need for strong partnerships across governments, industries, communities, and traditional owners to realize the North’s potential. In a warming climate with drought pressures intensifying in the south, northern Australia may still be a key player, but as a set of well-placed, climate-smart opportunities rather than a single, sweeping “food bowl.”
Looking ahead: practical steps and signals
Developing the North may hinge on targeted crop strategies, diversified markets, and improved irrigation efficiency that borrows from technology and best practices in water management. It also calls for a realistic appraisal of subtropical crops’ limits, investment in climate-resilient varieties, and a collaborative governance framework that respects regional voices and traditional land stewardship.
Conclusion: a resilient, redefined north
The Ord Valley story captures a broader national discussion: can Australia harness northern landscapes for food security without overstating the promise? The era of a simple, all-encompassing “food bowl” is fading. What remains is a pragmatic, cooperative approach—one that leverages the North’s strengths while acknowledging climate challenges and focusing on concrete, scalable agricultural opportunities that fit today’s environmental realities.
