Overview: A Narrow Victory Framing a Difficult Path
The Czech Republic has elected ANO, led by billionaire populist Andrej Babiš, to the largest bloc in parliament but without a majority. With about 34.5% of the vote and an estimated 80 seats in the 200-member chamber, Babiš faces the immediate challenge of turning a strong showing into a durable governing mandate. The core issue is not only winning the support of a coalition, but sustaining it long enough to pass laws and budgets in a fragmented parliament.
Coalition Prospects: Who Might Back a Minority or Tolerate a Government?
Several established parties have ruled out joining ANO in a formal coalition, narrowing Babiš’s options. The centre-right Spolu bloc came in second, and several smaller groups have signalled reluctance to enter a government led by ANO. As a result, Babiš is talking with far-right and nationalist factions, including the SPD and the Motorists. These potential partners are more likely to offer a confidence-and-supply deal than a full coalition, meaning ANO would still operate as a minority administration with episodic support on key votes.
Analysts warn that while a parliamentary majority could be brokered with several partners, such a coalition would be unstable by nature. Policy disagreements on the EU, climate policy, and migration could flare into standoffs, forcing Babiš to seek ad hoc support from other factions or publicly negotiate concessions that could dilute his reform agenda.
President Pavel’s Role and Constitutional Hurdles
President Petr Pavel has indicated he will not appoint ministers who advocate Czech withdrawal from the EU or NATO, signaling a constraint on Babiš’s cabinet choices. Pavel also retains the constitutional right to reject a proposed prime minister if the arrangement fails to meet legal or ethical standards. While a broad multiparty pact representing a stable majority would be ideal, even convincing Pavel to sign off on a narrow minority government may require compromises that limit ANO’s autonomy.
Policy Tinderbox: EU, Economy, and Domestic Reform
Babiš campaigned on growth, higher wages, tax relief, and pensions, while taking a sceptical line on certain EU initiatives such as climate policies and migration deals. He has maintained that ANO remains pro-European and pro-NATO, signaling pragmatic alignment with Brussels while seeking room to manoeuvre domestically. In practice, this dual stance could keep him from crossing red lines drawn by Brussels, even as he pursues a more independent path on economic and social policy at home.
What Would a Stable Term Look Like?
A realistic scenario would involve either a narrow minority government that survives confidence votes through intermittent support from the SPD and Motorists, or a loose, multi-party agreement that sets a common, short-term agenda on key priorities such as pensions, tax relief, and economic reform. Either arrangement risks rapid fragility if political fault lines widen—especially around the EU’s climate framework, defence commitments, or judicial appointments.
Conclusion: Realistic Expectations for Babiš
In short, while Babiš can form a government, turning that into a stable administration will be challenging. He faces stiff opposition from major parties, a potentially volatile alliance with fringe groups, and constitutional checks that could curb his scope. The path to 101 seats in a parliamentary majority may require difficult compromises that could undercut his platform. If he can secure credible, lasting backing from key lawmakers and demonstrate a pragmatic approach to EU obligations, a relatively durable government could emerge. Otherwise, we may see a short-lived minority administration facing ongoing political instability.
