Background and Setting
In Manila this week, the 47th Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (AMAF) gathered in a setting symbolic of regional resilience: a luxury hotel along Manila Bay. The formal agenda focused on agriculture and forestry policy, but a cloud lingered over the talks — the impact of U.S. tariffs on ASEAN exports. Officials said the topic never appeared on the official schedule, and that discussions were largely handled in informal conversations and hallway chatter rather than in plenary sessions.
As Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. explained to reporters, the issue surfaced quietly during lunch with fellow ministers and dialogue partners, including China, Japan, and South Korea. “In general, the discussion on tariffs was mostly done over lunch by a simple question: ‘Have you resolved or have you closed?’” he recalled, capturing the informal nature of the exchanges and the shared urgency to shield regional trade from tariff shocks.
Informal Talks Over Tariffs
While the formal AMAF agenda stayed clear of tariff negotiations, ministers used the lunchtime conversations to gauge each country’s stance on the U.S. duties. Laurel noted that several members said they still had no final tariff deals with the United States. He did not identify specific states, underscoring the sensitivity and potential bilateral complexity involved. The takeaway, he said, was not a single declaration but a broader sense of caution and persistence in protecting regional markets.
Amid the tariff uncertainty, ASEAN ministers reaffirmed a practical objective: deepen intra-ASEAN trade to reduce reliance on distant markets. “Of course, a discussion also is to find other markets around the world for ASEAN products,” Laurel added, signaling a two-pronged strategy — shore up regional supply chains while diversifying global demand.
What Ministers Agreed On
Beyond tariff talk, AMAF ministers signaled a commitment to strengthen regional resilience. The bloc emphasized accelerating intra-ASEAN commerce, improving value chains, and expanding market access for agricultural products. The aim is to rely on regional partners first, creating a more self-sustaining bloc in the face of external protectionism. The ministers also acknowledged the importance of forming a coordinated approach to identify and pursue new markets abroad, even as they monitor developments on U.S. trade measures.
US Tariffs: Where ASEAN Stands
The issue of U.S. tariffs has been a drag on several economies in the region. Since August, Philippine goods entering the United States have faced a 19% tariff. In contrast, U.S. exports into the Philippines are generally tariff-free on paper, though Philippine officials say there is no signed agreement yet. The tariffs and the ongoing negotiations color the calculus for policymakers as they try to preserve and expand trade ties with both the United States and other partners.
In a broader tally, the United States has imposed a range of duties on other ASEAN economies, illustrating the uneven protectionism that complicates regional planning:
- Brunei: 25%
- Cambodia: 19%
- Indonesia: 19%
- Laos: 40%
- Malaysia: 19%
- Myanmar: 40%
- Singapore: 10%
- Vietnam: 20%
- Thailand: 19%
Philippines officials have framed their July discussions with the U.S. as a partial success, noting a one-point decrease in the tariff rate as talks continue. The administration is pushing for exemptions or lower duties that would soften the hit to Philippine producers, particularly in durable agricultural goods and agro-based products. While progress is incremental, officials stress that any relief would have meaningful implications for farmers and exporters alike.
China and the ASEAN Trade Nexus
On China’s role, Laurel said there had been no substantive discussion yet during AMAF about how Beijing might compensate for a potential protectionist shift from Washington. Still, China has signaled openness to Philippine durian and other ASEAN products, offering a potential avenue for expanding export opportunities should U.S. barriers persist. In the long run, a diversified export strategy that includes enhanced regional trade with China could help cushion the impact of trans-Pacific tariffs.
Looking Ahead
As the AMAF gathering concludes, the overarching message is clear: ASEAN will lean into regional cooperation and market diversification to navigate a protective global trade environment. Ministers will monitor U.S. policy moves while pursuing internal reforms that boost the competitiveness of ASEAN agriculture and forestry products. The informal lunch exchange might seem minor, but it underlines a broader, practical diplomacy — a steady emphasis on resilience, intra-ASEAN integration, and the search for new markets to sustain growth in a climate of tariff volatility.
Bottom Line
AMAF’s Manila talks show how regional leaders balance urgent tariff pressures with longer-term economic strategy. By prioritizing intra-ASEAN trade and exploring alternative markets, the bloc aims to cushion its farmers and producers from sudden policy shifts while keeping doors open to future negotiations with the United States and other partners.
