Overview
Pakistan is facing a sharp uptick in violence in the third quarter of 2024, according to the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). The report indicates a 46% rise in violent incidents compared with previous quarters, driven by terrorist attacks and counter-insurgency operations. In Q3, authorities logged 329 violent events, which left 901 people dead and 599 injured. The figures reflect the persistent security challenges across the country and underline the volatility that has characterized various parts of Pakistan in recent months.
CRSS emphasizes that the data combines multiple sources, including official security reports, local media coverage, and field reporting. While numbers can vary with reporting practices, the trend points to a sustained phase of violence that the state and communities must navigate with renewed policy focus and resource allocation.
Fatalities and Perpetrators
Among those killed, 516 were criminals, accounting for about 57% of total fatalities. The remaining 385 fatalities included civilians and security personnel, such as police and armed forces. This breakdown highlights the ongoing risk to civilians in addition to the toll on security actors who are frequently targeted in insurgent and terrorist operations.
Year-to-Date Context
For 2024 so far, CRSS records a cumulative total of 2,414 fatalities from violence. The year-to-date toll has risen to 2,546, signaling that the country continues to grapple with high casualty levels even as some quarters may experience short-term lulls. The contrast between quarterly spikes and annual totals suggests episodic bursts of violence that complicate security planning, resource distribution, and civilian protection strategies.
Regional Focus: KP and Balochistan
Violence remains heavily concentrated in two provinces: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan. Together, these regions account for the overwhelming majority of incidents, with figures showing that about 96% of the total violence occurred there. The concentration underscores the uneven security landscape within Pakistan, where bordering areas, remote districts, and porous frontiers contribute to ongoing instability and periodic attacks.
Recent Incident Spotlight
In a recent alarming development, a suicide attack near Quetta resulted in 11 fatalities. Such attacks near urban centers and provincial capitals illustrate the enduring vulnerability of civilian populations and critical infrastructure. Analysts note that counter-terrorism operations, while essential for disrupting militant networks, often generate immediate, localized spikes in violence before broader stabilization measures take effect.
Implications for Policy and Security
The CRSS figures call for a calibrated mix of intelligence-led security actions, border management, and community-focused counter-extremism programs. Policymakers and security planners are urged to prioritize civilian protection, timely casualty reporting, and transparent communication to maintain public trust during periods of elevated violence. Long-term stabilization will likely depend on addressing underlying drivers such as poverty, governance gaps, and regional security dynamics that enable militant networks to operate in pockets of the country.
Looking Ahead
As Pakistan moves into the final quarter of the year, observers will closely monitor the trajectory of violence in KP and Balochistan, shifts in militant activity, and the impact of ongoing security campaigns. The coming months will be critical for assessing whether the spikes in Q3 reflect a temporary surge or a more sustained pattern. Stakeholders—from security services to humanitarian agencies—will need to align resources, refine risk assessments, and strengthen protection for vulnerable communities in high-risk districts.
Conclusion
The CRSS assessment of a 46% rise in violence in Q3 2024 marks a significant moment in Pakistan’s security landscape. With the bulk of violence concentrated in KP and Balochistan and a sizeable civilian and security toll, the period demands targeted policy actions, robust intelligence work, and comprehensive support for affected communities. Ongoing transparency in data collection and reporting will remain essential as Pakistan navigates this challenging security environment.
