Global Grain Market Snapshot
Prices across major grain markets have moved lower as harvest progress and fresh stock data weigh on sentiment. European prices remain particularly bearish, with Paris MATIF futures for December 2025 dipping to contract lows around 186.25 euros per tonne on September 30. The slide mirrors a broader wave of bearish signals across the grain complex, including seasonal lows in Chicago wheat futures earlier in the week as higher production estimates from the USDA dampen the outlook for prices. In addition, Chicago maize and soy futures have retreated to August lows, reflecting ample carry in domestic stocks. Dec-25 maize traded near 4.16 dollars per bushel, roughly 139 euros per tonne, underscoring the pressure facing both feed grains and biofuel-grade corn.
Trade Flows and Importer Dynamics
European wheat has not been the favored option for many importers at present, even with improved price competitiveness. Large buyers such as Algeria and Iran are evaluating alternatives and delaying purchases, which helps explain the creaking price momentum in the European market. Paris rapeseed futures have moved back toward the lower end of the recent trading range, closing Tuesday for Nov-25 at 465.25 euros per tonne, down 5.75 from Friday’s close and below the key support around 470. This dynamic continues to weigh on oilseed markets and raises questions about substitute demand in the months ahead.
Regional Harvests and Domestic Price Signals
Back on the farm and in domestic markets, the harvest pace for maize in the United States progressed to 18 percent complete as of September 28, just shy of the five-year average of 19 percent. The IFA Grain Committee said no additional native price announcements were made this week; representatives will meet with Tirlan and Dairygold on harvest 2025 in the coming week to discuss price and supply considerations. Dried grains—an important reference for domestic pricing—held steady with dried wheat trading roughly at 215-220 euros per tonne, and dried barley about 10 euros per tonne lower. Imported maize was quoted in the 212-215 euro per tonne range, a level that keeps domestic feed costs under the lens of price-sensitive animal producers.
Supply and Demand: The USDA View
Global supply and demand signals remained in focus after the USDA’s quarterly report. In the United States, production and ending stocks for wheat were higher than anticipated. Winter wheat output rose 3.9 percent, while spring wheat declined by about 8.3 percent. For maize, ending stocks for the 2024/25 crop were revised upward, reflecting a larger-than-expected carry that adds to price softness into the next marketing year.
Southern Hemisphere Prospects
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its wheat crop forecast to around 22 million tonnes, up from 20.5 million earlier, with harvest slated for November. The canopy of the southern hemisphere also looks set for above-average crops in Australia and other major producers, reinforcing the global oversupply narrative if demand does not firm in the northern markets.
What to Watch Next
Market participants will be watching price action on both the Matif and the Chicago boards, as harvest progress and weather developments continue to shape the sentiment. The ongoing interaction between import demand, particularly from North Africa and the Middle East, and export availability from the southern hemisphere will influence European price trajectories in the weeks ahead. With USDA revisions signaling comfortable cereal stocks, downside risk may persist, but any shocks to demand—such as policy changes or unexpected weather disruptions—could offer brief relief for certain grains from time to time.
