Poll Update: Union Narrowly Ahead of AfD as Economic Confidence Wanes
The latest ZDF-Politbarometer, conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, shows the CDU/CSU regaining a slim lead over the AfD. In the survey, released ahead of the next Bundestag election, the Union climbs to 27 percent (+1 point) while the AfD falls to 25 percent (-1). Two weeks prior, the AfD had matched the Union at 26 percent, illustrating a volatile political landscape as voters respond to recent events and economic concerns.
Other parties remain largely steady: the SPD holds at 15 percent, the Greens rise to 11 percent (+1), and the Left also sits at 11 percent. The FDP remains at 3 percent, and “Others” account for 8 percent (+2). Notably, the BSW is not shown as a separate category in this wave. If an election were held next Sunday, these numbers would translate into a party lineup that keeps the SPD relatively small on the national stage but still capable of influencing coalition dynamics.
What the Numbers Say About the Current Political Terrain
Beyond the top two parties, the poll paints a picture of a fragmented electorate where small shifts matter. The CDU/CSU’s 27 percent places it solidly in front of the AfD, but a two-point gap remains narrow enough to keep both parties in realistic contention for a coalition scenario depending on voter turnout and cross-party arrangements in the future Bundestag. The SPD’s 15 percent, unchanged from the previous reading, underscores the party’s ongoing challenge to expand its base amid questions about leadership and policy clarity.
The Greens’ modest uptick to 11 percent mirrors a broader trend where environmental and climate policy continues to resonate with a portion of voters, even as some swing voters look for stability on the economy. The Left mirrors the Greens at 11 percent, indicating continued appeal among voters seeking alternative economic models and social policy reforms. The FDP at 3 percent suggests limited appeal for market-oriented liberal governance among a wider swath of voters, while the “Others” category gaining 2 points signals ongoing volatility and the potential for smaller parties to emerge as veto players in coalition talks.
In terms of leadership perception, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius of the SPD remains the most trusted individual on a scale from +5 to -5, with an average rating of 2.2. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is a distant second at 0.9, followed by cabinet members Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil at about 0.4 each. Chancellor Friedrich Merz sits at a marginal negative -0.1. These figures highlight a cautious mood about national leadership as voters weigh security, diplomacy, and economic prospects ahead of the vote.
Public Optimism on Economic Policy Takes a Hit
Perhaps the most pronounced shift in the latest poll is public sentiment on the government’s ability to stimulate the economy. Only 46 percent now believe the government will make a meaningful contribution to boosting the economy, while 50 percent think otherwise. This marks a notable decline from the early days of the new administration in May, when optimism ran high: a clear majority of 64 percent were confident, and 32 percent were skeptical. The swing suggests that economic expectations have cooled as new policy choices take shape and global conditions fluctuate, affecting how voters judge the government’s competence in fostering growth and employment.
Analysts caution that polls capture only a moment in time and can fluctuate with political events, media coverage, and campaign messaging. The ZDF Politbarometer is intended to reflect the mood of a representative sample rather than to predict a precise electoral outcome. The survey interviewed 1,300 randomly selected eligible voters between September 29 and October 1, with both telephone and online methods, and weights responses to approximate the broader electorate. As campaigns intensify, observers will watch whether the economy emerges as a decisive issue or competes with security, Europe, and domestic policy questions for voters’ attention.
Implications for the Road to the Bundestag
With the Union and AfD in a neck-and-neck position, even a small movement among swing voters could tilt the balance in coalition negotiations. Economic policy remains a focal point: parties appealing to growth, jobs, and fiscal responsibility will be under pressure to show tangible plans that can restore confidence among households and businesses alike. While the SPD, Greens, and Left continue to vie for influence on the center-left and left, the current numbers remind campaign strategists that a broad, credible economic narrative will be essential to converting support into seats on election day.
Methodological Note and Looking Ahead
The researchers describe the poll as representative of eligible voters, with interviews conducted from September 29 to October 1. Weighting accounts for demographic factors to better mirror the national electorate. As with all public opinion surveys, results must be interpreted with an understanding of methodological limitations and the inherently changing political environment. The next wave will reveal whether the Union’s slight lead endures or shifts again as campaign dynamics evolve.
