Overview: Paolo Becomes a Tropical Storm and Its Forecast Path
PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Nr. 4, issued at 5:00 AM on 02 October 2025, confirms that PAOLO has intensified into a tropical storm. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwest across the northern Philippines, with landfall possible in Isabela or northern Aurora on the morning of 03 October. After crossing northern Luzon, Paolo is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea and continue its west-northwest motion, potentially exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility by the morning of 04 October. Forecasters caution that the track may still shift within the forecast cone, and conditions far from the landfall point can remain hazardous.
Hazards Affecting Land Areas
The bulletin highlights multiple hazards, primarily heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal storm surge. Heavy rain is expected in many localities, with peak rainfall possible within the 36-hour window after landfall. The public is advised to refer to Weather Advisory No. 3 for the latest rainfall outlook associated with PAOLO.
Wind hazards are described in terms of signaling, with minimal to minor impacts anticipated from winds corresponding to Wind Signal No. 1 in many areas. The highest signal that may be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3, but the possibility of reaching typhoon intensity before landfall cannot be ruled out. In a worst-case scenario, Wind Signal No. 4 remains possible if the storm strengthens rapidly and its track brings it closer to land.
Coastal areas should prepare for a moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge, with peak heights projected between 1.0 and 2.0 meters within 36 hours along exposed shores of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. This surge could compound flooding risks in low-lying communities and coastal infrastructure, so residents near vulnerable coastlines should heed local evacuation orders and stay informed through official updates.
Coastal Waters: Sea Conditions and Warnings
The 24-hour sea-condition outlook suggests that gale conditions may be raised over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon this afternoon as PAOLO approaches, potentially bringing rough to very rough seas. Mariners and coastal users should monitor the latest gale warnings and adjust plans accordingly, especially those operating near exposed ports or engaging in offshore activities.
Track and Intensity Outlook
PAOLO is forecast to intensify gradually while over the Philippine Sea, possibly reaching the severe tropical storm category by tomorrow morning. While there is potential for further strengthening into a typhoon after it traverses the West Philippine Sea, this depends on environmental conditions such as sea surface temperatures, atmospheric stability, and interactions with land. Forecasters emphasize that heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surge may still impact areas outside the forecast landfall point, and the forecast cone can shift with new data.
In the forecast scenario, PAOLO’s landfall is most likely in Isabela or northern Aurora on 03 October morning. After crossing Northern Luzon, PAOLO would emerge into the West Philippine Sea and continue moving west-northwest until it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility by 04 October morning. Individuals in the affected regions should stay alert for updates as the track and intensity evolve.
Implications for Residents and Preparedness Tips
Residents in the predicted path should monitor official advisories for changes in track, intensity, and potential landfall timing. Practical steps include stocking essential supplies for at least 72 hours, securing loose objects, protecting windows and doors, and ensuring that drainage systems around homes are clear to reduce flood risks. Those living in low-lying and flood-prone areas should be prepared for possible runoff and flash floods, while coastal communities should remain vigilant for storm surge impacts and abide by evacuation orders if issued by local authorities.
Staying Informed
This bulletin is valid until the next advisory at 11:00 AM today. For ongoing updates, monitor PAGASA’s official releases and local government advisories. As PAOLO evolves, personal safety and community readiness remain the priorities, with weather advisories providing critical information to guide protective actions.
