Overview: Paolo strengthens into a Tropical Storm
PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 4, issued at 5:00 AM on 02 October 2025, confirms that Tropical Storm Paolo has intensified from a tropical depression into a tropical storm. The latest forecast indicates that Paolo will move generally west-northwestward, with a probable landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow morning. After crossing Northern Luzon, Paolo is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea and continue its west-northwest trajectory toward exit from the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday morning.
Forecasts also warn that Paolo will continue to strengthen while over the Philippine Sea, and may reach severe tropical storm status by tomorrow morning. There is a possibility, depending on the strength of the high-pressure system to the north, that Paolo could intensify further into a typhoon before making landfall, though this remains a scenario rather than a certainty at this stage.
Hazards Affected by Land Areas
Residents in storm-affected regions should be aware of multiple hazards that accompany a strengthening tropical cyclone, including heavy rainfall, winds, and storm surge. The advisory notes that the most intense impacts may occur outside the forecast landfall point, and the forecast path may shift within the statistical confidence cone.
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
The bulletin references an ongoing heavy rainfall outlook associated with Paolo. Localized downpours can lead to flash flooding and overflowing rivers, particularly in low-lying communities. The public is advised to monitor weather advisories and be prepared for possible extended rainfall durations in affected provinces.
Severe Winds and Wind Signals
Public wind hazards are described in terms of Wind Signals. The highest signal likely to be hoisted during Paolo’s passage is Wind Signal No. 3, though the evolution of the system may warrant a No. 4 wind warning if conditions become more intense—potentially before landfall. Even with Wind Signal No. 1 in some areas, exposed coastal and upland locations should brace for stronger local winds and safeguarding of vulnerable structures and utilities.
Coastal Inundation and Storm Surge
A moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge is anticipated, with peak surge heights of 1.0 to 2.0 meters expected within 36 hours in low-lying and exposed coastal localities. The affected zones include parts of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Coastal communities should plan for possible sea-level rise, overtopping of coastal defenses, and the need for evacuation readiness in surge-prone areas.
Hazards Affecting Coastal Waters
The 24-hour sea condition outlook anticipates rough to very rough seas along the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, with a Gale Warning potentially issued this afternoon as Paolo moves closer to the coastline. Mariners and coastal residents should heed advisories and follow the guidance of local authorities, particularly about port operations and safe harbor protocols.
Track and Intensity Outlook
PAOLO is forecast to move generally west-northwestward through the forecast period. Based on the latest track, landfall is anticipated in Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow morning. After traversing Northern Luzon, Paolo is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea and continue west-northwestward until exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday morning.
In terms of intensity, Paolo is expected to continue strengthening while over the Philippine Sea, with potential progression toward severe tropical storm status by tomorrow morning. While intensification into a typhoon prior to landfall remains within the realm of possibility, the official forecast indicates a high likelihood of reaching typhoon strength once Paolo emerges over the West Philippine Sea, depending on sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.
Preparedness and Public Guidance
Residents and local officials in affected regions should remain vigilant and closely monitor PAGASA updates and the official Weather Advisories. Practical steps include securing loose outdoor items, preparing emergency kits with essentials, ensuring backup power and communication plans, and staying away from flood-prone and storm-surge zones. Evacuation plans should be reviewed, especially for households along vulnerable coastlines and near rivers and streams that could experience flash floods.
Authorities emphasize not to underestimate the potential for rapid changes in Paolo’s intensity and track. The public should treat all advisories as urgent and rely on official guidance for decisions about travel, school closures, and maritime activities.
Conclusion
As Tropical Storm Paolo approaches, the Philippines faces a period of unsettled weather with significant rainfall, strong winds, and the threat of storm surge in coastal areas. While forecast confidence remains variable, residents in the northern and eastern parts of Luzon should prepare for potential landfall, including possible typhoon-strength conditions should Paolo intensify further after landfall. Stay tuned to PAGASA for the latest advisories and updates as the situation evolves.
