Overview
A new blood-based method developed at Karolinska Institutet offers a way to predict the risk of developing severe liver disease within ten years. The simple blood analysis is designed for use in primary care to identify individuals who are at higher risk of progressing to conditions such as cirrhosis or liver cancer. If validated in broader populations, the test could shift liver health management toward prevention and early intervention.
How the test works
The test relies on a panel of blood-based biomarkers combined with basic patient information such as age, sex, body mass index, and lifestyle factors. Using a data-driven risk model, clinicians receive a risk score that estimates the probability of developing serious liver disease over the next decade. The aim is not to diagnose disease today, but to flag individuals who would benefit from closer monitoring, lifestyle modification support, or targeted screening for liver cancer.
What is measured
Biomarkers reflect liver function, inflammation, and tissue remodeling, alongside indicators linked to known liver disease risk factors. Together, they form a profile that, when processed with patient data, correlates with future risk in large populations. The approach is designed to be simple enough for routine use in primary care settings.
Why this matters
Early detection is crucial for conditions like cirrhosis and liver cancer, where treatment is most effective in the disease’s initial stages. Bringing risk assessment into primary care means clinicians can guide patients toward meaningful actions—such as metabolic control, hepatitis management, vaccination where appropriate, and tailored surveillance plans (imaging or biopsy) when indicated.
Potential impact
If the method proves reliable across diverse groups, it could reduce the burden of late-stage liver disease and help allocate health resources more efficiently by focusing attention on people with the highest risk. The test also holds promise for personalized prevention, encouraging patients to adopt healthier lifestyles to lower their ten-year risk.
What happens next
Experts emphasize that the test is a tool to aid clinical judgment, not a stand-alone diagnostic. Additional validation in broader and more diverse populations, regulatory review, and integration with electronic health records are essential steps before widespread adoption. Researchers are also exploring how the risk score might be combined with existing screening programs to maximize clinical benefit without increasing unnecessary testing.
About the study
The research from Karolinska Institutet represents a broader shift toward proactive hepatology, prioritizing prevention and early intervention in routine care. As data accumulates, the method may evolve into a standard screening option for liver health in various healthcare systems worldwide.
