What is Habagat and why it matters
The southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat, is a key driver of Weather in the Philippines. Spanning roughly May through October, habagat brings warm, moist air from the southwest, often delivering heavy rains to the western parts of the country. Farmers rely on the pattern for planting schedules, while coastal communities watch for potential flooding, especially during peak monsoon activity. As the calendar turns toward October, experts at PAGASA monitor signs of change as the season transitions towards the northeast monsoon—known locally as amihan.
PAGASA forecast: when the southwest monsoon weakens and amihan returns
In its latest advisory, PAGASA indicated that the habagat is expected to weaken in the coming weeks, signaling a gradual shift toward the northeast monsoon. This transition typically brings cooler air, a different wind pattern, and a redistribution of rainfall across the country. While it does not erase rainfall entirely, the amihan often reduces the intensity of southwest-driven showers in western areas and can bring more predictable, cooler conditions in the eastern portions as the season progresses.
What this means for weather, rainfall, and daily life
The end of habagat in October is a national weather milestone. Residents may notice fewer continuous downpours associated with the southwest monsoon and a higher likelihood of dry spells interspersed with occasional rain during the amihan period. Jumbling showers and storms can still occur, especially if the monsoon trough or residual tropical disturbances interact with northeasterly winds. For urban planners and farmers, the shift means reassessing drainage readiness, irrigation needs, and crop calendars to align with the changing rainfall regime.
For residents and farmers
Households should stay updated on PAGASA advisories as the transition unfolds. Flood-prone areas remain at risk during heavy rain events, so it is prudent to review flood evacuation plans, secure outdoor items, and ensure drainage systems are clear. Farmers may adjust planting and harvest timelines to take advantage of the amihan’s typically cooler, drier spells while remaining alert to unexpected showers caused by lingering monsoon activity.
For travelers and coastal communities
Travel plans during October can benefit from the shifting weather. The amihan often brings clearer skies and rougher seas from the northeast, which can affect coastal activities and shipping. Tourists should check daily weather forecasts, especially if visiting highland regions where cooler temperatures become more common. Fisherfolk and coastal economies should monitor wind advisories, as changing wind directions can influence fishing schedules and harbor operations.
Monitoring the transition in the coming weeks
Experts say the signal of a robust amihan pattern will become clearer as October advances. PAGASA will continue to issue regular weather outlooks, including rainfall forecasts and wind advisories, to help communities plan ahead. While the end of habagat in October marks a seasonal turning point, it does not guarantee uniform weather across all regions; localized heavy rain, thunderstorms, and typhoon interactions can still occur. Staying informed through official PAGASA updates remains the best approach for preparedness during this transitional period.
