Moldova Elections: Pro-EU Party Leads as Vote Count Grows

Overview: PAS Takes the Lead as Counting Continues

With roughly 75 percent of ballots tallied in Moldova’s parliamentary elections, the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) holds a clear lead. The party of President Maia Sandu is on about 44 percent of the vote, while the pro-Russian Patriotic Block trails at approximately 28 percent. As more ballots are counted, PAS’s edge appears to be widening, though no party has yet secured an outright majority. A key dynamic remains the counting of diaspora ballots, traditionally more favorable to Europe, which have often arrived last in the tally.

What the Numbers Mean for Moldova’s Future

The current result reframes Moldova’s political trajectory. A PAS-led government would likely pursue closer European integration and reforms aligned with EU standards, but the absence of an absolute majority complicates immediate policy ambitions. Four years ago, PAS won an outright majority, yet economic fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and geopolitical headwinds have tempered the pro-EU mood. In a separate referendum, voters narrowly approved embedding EU integration into the Moldovan constitution, signaling durable euroscepticism may be waning regardless of parliamentary arithmetic.

Diaspora Votes: The Unpredictable Final Twist

The Moldovan diaspora, often leaning pro-Europe, could swing the final result once their ballots are fully counted. Historically, diaspora votes can tip seats balances in tight races, and this election is no exception. Until those tallies are complete, the outcome remains provisional, underscoring the importance of every ballot in the parliamentary arithmetic.

Disinformation, External Influence, and Electoral Integrity

Russia’s influence operations have loomed large in Moldova’s election environment. Ukrainian intelligence services allege Moscow dedicated substantial funds to shape the vote, with estimates around hundreds of millions of euros reportedly orchestrated to support Kremlin-aligned blocs. In a related move, authorities this week disqualified two pro-Russian parties from running, citing concerns about Kremlin-linked financing. Pro-Russian actors have framed the disqualification as evidence of EU interference in Moldova’s democratic process, highlighting the broader information warfare surrounding the race.

Security Incidents: Bomb Scares and Procedural Hitches

Security concerns added to the volatility of Election Day. Bomb threats were reported at polling stations abroad in Romania, Spain, the United States, and Belgium, which the Moldovan Foreign Ministry attributed to a Russia-backed campaign. Inside Moldova, dozens of incidents were logged: some polling stations opened too late or too early, some ballot boxes were not correctly sealed, and a few polling booths were mislocated, creating opportunities for observers to notice irregularities. The convergence of security scares and procedural hiccups underscores the fragility of the electoral environment and the need for robust oversight and rapid response in future rounds.

Looking Ahead: The Path to Governance and EU Integration

As Moldova heads toward potential coalition agreements, the central question remains: who will steer the country toward deeper European integration or closer ties with alternative regional blocs? Analysts warn that even with a PAS majority, governance will depend on cross-party cooperation, public support for reforms, and external shocks—most notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the related economic and security pressures. The electoral landscape suggests a preference for reform and European alignment, but the final composition of parliament will determine how swiftly Moldova can translate that preference into concrete policy moves.