Election in Moldova: a climate of tension
Moldova’s parliamentary elections were held amid a cloud of tension, with rival camps accusing each other of manipulation and intimidation. Pre-election polls had largely shown Maia Sandu’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) ahead, the party that has led the country since 2021. Yet analysts warn that the outcome remains uncertain and the political weather could shift in the final hours before the votes are counted.
In the capital and across the country, ordinary voters described a pivotal choice between preserving Moldova’s current euro-leaning trajectory and leaning back toward closer ties with Russia. The mood at polling stations was a mix of cautious optimism and wary caution as people weighed the benefits of higher wages, pensions, and the security guarantees that come with European integration against fears of instability and influence from abroad.
Two camps, two futures
The election pits the pro-European PAS against a broad opposition that has favored closer relations with Moscow. The PAS, which has led Moldova since a decisive victory in 2021, champions closer integration with the European Union and Western institutions. The opposition, influenced by Russia, argues for rethinking security and foreign policy toward a more balanced or even renewed relationship with Moscow, while claiming the PAS has mismanaged the economy and eroded national sovereignty.
Voters coming from different walks of life highlighted the two futures on offer. A craftsman in the capital emphasized the desire for sustainable wages and pensions, hoping policy would keep Moldova on its current development track. A retiree who had lived abroad spoke of catching up with European living standards, noting that Europe has much to offer Moldova’s citizens. The panorama pointed to a country torn between economic aspirations and geopolitical fears.
Russia’s shadow and EU concerns
European Union officials warned of a pronounced propaganda campaign and disinformation backed by Russia. They described a scenario in which foreign influence could undermine Moldova’s democratic institutions and the integrity of the vote. In response, the president and PAS leadership warned that Russia was trying to derail Moldova’s progress toward democracy and stability, signaling that elections could become a frontline for broader regional tensions. Analysts noted that while Moscow denied interference, the rhetoric and online activity suggested a deliberate attempt to sway public opinion and sow doubt about the electoral process.
Crackdown on alleged irregularities
Security services reported a wave of investigations into attempts to corrupt or destabilize the process. Since early August, Moldovan police conducted hundreds of searches linked to vote-buying and other irregularities, resulting in dozens of arrests. Scholars and policy observers described the environment as the most intrusive and scrutinized electoral campaign Moldova has faced since gaining independence in 1991. A prominent political analyst noted that the scale of activity marked a new peak of foreign-backed interference in the campaign, underscoring the high stakes involved for Moldova’s political future.
What voters are saying on the ground
As voters queued at polling sites, many described a choice between pursuing a stable, pro-European path and weighing the risks of external influence. Some citizens urged the country to maintain a path toward European integration, viewing it as a route to better living standards and security guarantees. Others argued for economic pragmatism or insisted on a policy of maintaining open channels with all partners while asserting Moldova’s sovereignty. The day underscored the depth of the divide over how Moldova should position itself on the regional stage.
When and how to vote
Polls opened early in the morning and closed in the early afternoon, with strict procedures designed to safeguard ballot integrity. The turnout challenge extended beyond the republic, as Moldova relies on a large diaspora—estimated in hundreds of thousands in prior elections—and the region of Transnistria, which remains pro-Russian, to have a meaningful impact on the result. In the last election, national turnout stood at 52.3%, with PAS taking a comfortable lead over the opposition. This time, analysts expect a tighter race, with the diaspora and border regions playing a decisive role in the final tally.
Looking ahead: implications for Moldova and the region
The outcome of Moldova’s 2025 vote could shape the country’s EU trajectory and its security posture amid ongoing tensions in neighboring Ukraine. A PAS victory would bolster the pro-European consensus, reinforcing reforms, rule of law, and anti-corruption efforts. A stronger showing by pro-Russian forces could complicate Moldova’s path toward EU integration and potentially recalibrate its alliances, including dialogue with the EU and the Kremlin. Whatever the result, Moldova’s election day is being watched as a litmus test for democratic resilience in a small country navigating powerful external forces.
Historical context: 2021 results
In 2021, Moldova’s PAS captured about 52.8% of the national vote, while the opposing bloc of socialists and communists trailed with roughly 27.2%. The party’s victory marked a turning point toward reforms and Western alignment, but the ensuing period has been defined by ongoing debates over sovereignty, energy security, and Moldova’s long-term strategic orientation. The 2025 elections thus carry heightened significance as Moldova seeks continuity or recalibration in response to regional pressures.
