Moldova’s election is a test for Europe and a frontline in the hybrid war
In talks at the United Nations this week, Ukraine’s president warned that Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova as a neighbor, a sentiment echoed by observers who see the country as a strategic battleground in the broader conflict with Russia. Moldova stands at a political crossroads: deepen ties with the European Union or risk letting Moscow pull the strings through influence campaigns, disinformation, and residual regional loyalties.
A frontline in the hybrid war
For more than a decade, Moldova has faced a hybrid form of conflict that blends traditional power plays with information warfare. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s assessment rings true in a country with some of Europe’s lowest living standards and growing skepticism toward Brussels amid energy price shocks. The divide isn’t only political; it pits the EU-leaning capital, Chisinau, against rural areas where support for closer ties with Russia remains persistent. The strategic fault line runs along language, identity, and economic fortunes, complicating the choice Moldova must make at the polls.
Transnistria and the lingering Russian presence
The eastern bank of Moldova is the de facto frontline: Transnistria, a narrow strip backed by Russian-backed forces since the 1990s. The region has long carried the trappings of a Soviet-era outpost—from statues to street names—and serves as a symbol of the enduring influence Moscow seeks to preserve. Outside Transnistria, Russian money and messaging flow into the rest of the country, fueling both propaganda and deliberate attempts to sway public opinion toward a pro-Russian outcome.
Disinformation, protests, and political leverage
Western-style authorities in Moldova accuse Moscow of financing propaganda and paying ordinary citizens to participate in protests or to vote for pro-Russian candidates. In the run-up to the elections, two pro-Russian parties have faced bans from election authorities amid concerns about destabilization and organized agitation. Reports of large-scale outreach, including promises or incentives, have heightened anxiety about the integrity of the vote and the possibility of a contested result that could redraw Moldova’s future alignment.
Maia Sandu’s warning and the Kremlin’s ambitions
Maia Sandu, Moldova’s pro-European president, has repeatedly warned that the Kremlin will go to great lengths to tilt the outcome in its favor. She has framed Moscow’s effort as a bid to reassert influence over a country that has repeatedly sought closer ties with Europe and security guarantees that would reduce energy dependence on Russia. Her message is clear: the Kremlin’s interference is costly, and the EU’s stability is at stake if Moldova falters in its reform trajectory.
Historical context and the broad stakes
The people of Moldova carry a complex history: a region once part of the Russian Empire, then linked to Romania after World War I, and later absorbed into the Soviet Union. Since gaining independence in 1991, Moldova has navigated the pull between East and West. Vladimir Putin has described the Soviet Union’s collapse as a geopolitical catastrophe, a framing that underscores Moscow’s willingness to reassert influence where it believes the post-Soviet order is fraying. Zelensky’s call for EU backing reflects a broader regional logic: European stability increasingly depends on Moldova’s successful pivot toward European norms, institutions, and markets.
What a pro-European result could mean
A parliamentary victory for parties favoring European integration would reinforce Moldova’s economic reform agenda, energy diversification, and rule-of-law reform. It would also send a signal to Moscow that the region’s future is tied to European integration rather than preserved Russian influence. For Europe, the stakes are not only geopolitical but humanitarian and economic: stability on Moldova’s borders helps prevent spillover effects that would strain the already fragile energy and security landscape across the region.
The 3.6 million citizens of Moldova — including a substantial diaspora abroad — are watching closely how the vote unfolds. If Moldova moves decisively toward the EU, Zelensky, Sandu, and European partners argue, it could help anchor peace and prosperity on Europe’s eastern edge, reducing the price of instability for the entire continent.
