Understanding the Current Political Landscape
As Israel’s political arena evolves, the recent announcement by former Knesset member Gadi Izencot about his new party has elicited varied reactions. Professor Asher Cohen from the Department of Political Science at Bar-Ilan University suggests that this move does not significantly alter the political landscape but rather sharpens the intra-block dynamics within the center-left coalition.
The Rise of Personal Parties
Professor Cohen identifies Izencot’s party as yet another example of what he terms “personal parties” dominating the central-left camp. He questions the viability of these parties by posing a critical thought: “If we remove the individual at the helm, is there a party left? Think about Lieberman, Gantz, Izencot, or Bennett.” In contrast, he argues that parties like Likud have demonstrated institutional resilience even after losing prominent leaders such as Menachem Begin.
The Ideological Vacuum
Furthermore, Professor Cohen expresses skepticism about the ideological differences within these new parties. He challenges the average citizen with the question, “What is the fundamental difference between Izencot and Gantz?” He believes that most would struggle to provide a substantial answer. This leads him to conclude that Izencot’s initiative is primarily driven by his desire to enhance his political stature, as he previously held a secondary role under Gantz.
The Perception of Electoral Shifts
Professor Cohen dismantles the common narrative of significant electoral shifts from one election to the next. He argues that around 110 mandates are already committed to their respective blocs, leaving only about 10 mandates undecided. This understanding of voter commitment leads him to view the polling data indicating significant fluctuations within the current Knesset with skepticism. “No one believes 20 mandates have shifted from one bloc to another. This phenomenon does not occur in Israel,” he asserts.
Understanding Polling Nuances
He elaborates on the nature of polling conducted far from election dates, noting that individuals expressing dissatisfaction in surveys do not equate to those who will actually vote differently. “Expressing discontent in a survey is not the same as casting a ballot,” he states, emphasizing that the challenge for each political camp lies in addressing its internal dilemmas rather than seeking mass persuasion.
The Center-Left’s Existential Dilemma
The center-left coalition faces a stark challenge: achieving 61 mandates without support from Arab parties, which remains a complicated reality. Meanwhile, the national camp faces an identity challenge. Professor Cohen notes that despite a predominant right-wing sentiment, many traditional voters may not feel aligned with parties like Likud or Smotrich’s. Thus, there may be space for a new party that resonates with disenchanted right-leaning voters.
The Impact of Primaries
When discussing the trend of parties seeking to consolidate power back into the hands of leaders, as seen recently in the religious Zionist party, Professor Cohen offers a surprising opinion: “Primaries are not such a good system.” Using Likud as a reference, he argues that the need to appeal to a wide audience can lead to superficial or provocative strategies, especially as parties gear up for primaries.
The Current State of Israeli Politics
Finally, he dismisses the apocalyptic narrative suggesting we are in the worst era of Israeli politics. “There’s a tendency to idealize the past, while the reality is often more complex than we perceive,” he states. His optimism is reflected in recent statistics that show 91% of people in Israel are satisfied with their lives, despite ongoing challenges. “How can it be,” he asks, “that so many are content in a country facing significant trials? This is a crucial part of the narrative that often goes unrecognized.”
