Nigeria sets ambitious oil and gas targets for 2026 and beyond
Bashir Bayo Ojulari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), recently outlined a bold trajectory for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. He asserted that an 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) oil benchmark for 2026 is achievable, provided the industry remains focused on policy stability, investment inflows, and enhanced production efficiency. This push comes as the company signals an aggressive capital plan—targeting about $30 billion in new investments by 2030 to expand refining, exploration, and gas infrastructure.
Why 1.8mbpd by 2026 could redefine Nigeria’s energy landscape
Analysts and industry observers say that reaching 1.8mbpd would require a combination of targeted oil-supply discipline, improved upstream performance, and a supportive regulatory environment. Ojulari’s optimism hinges on the alignment of state oil interests with private sector partnerships, faster permit processes, and incentives that attract international players back to Nigeria’s prolific fields. If realized, the milestone would mark a significant uptick from recent averages and help stabilize Nigeria’s role as a key supplier in West Africa and beyond.
Gas growth and electricity implications: gas above 7bcf/day
Alongside oil, Nigeria’s gas sector is poised for rapid expansion, with gas production projected to exceed 7 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day). This growth would support domestic electricity generation, reduce gas flaring, and position Nigeria as a regional energy hub for gas supply. A robust gas market complements oil production, enabling more resilient revenue streams for the government and operators while supporting industrial growth and regional energy security.
The investment push: $30 billion by 2030
Ojulari linked the oil and gas expansion to a large-scale investment drive aimed at $30 billion by 2030. The plan spans new upstream ventures, refinery upgrades, LNG projects, and downstream value chains that can unlock Nigerian crude’s value. Achieving this level of investment would require robust policy certainty, transparent procurement, predictable currency management, and strong local content development to maximise domestic participation and job creation.
Competitiveness and the Nigerian advantage
In Ojulari’s view, competition in the global oil market could tilt in Nigeria’s favor as the market adjusts to new realities—especially if the country accelerates its investment and improves cost efficiency. Nigeria’s energy mix, cost structure, and access to diverse gas resources may grant it a competitive edge, particularly if international majors seek reliable partners with long-term growth potential in Africa. The emphasis will be on sustainable production, environmental stewardship, and a clear roadmap to monetize gas assets alongside oil revenue.
Outlook for 2025 and 2026
With oil output tipped at around 1.7mbpd in 2025, stakeholders are banking on steady gains to reach the 2026 target. Strengthened collaboration between government, state oil company leadership, and private operators will be essential to maintaining momentum. Infrastructure modernisation—such as pipeline rehabilitation, storage capacity expansion, and port logistics—will also play a crucial role in enabling higher production and smoother export flows.
What this means for Nigerians
For Nigerians, the dual focus on oil and gas growth promises better energy security, potential price stability, and broader opportunities in the local supply chain. A successful execution of the investment plan could translate into more jobs, technology transfer, and enhanced revenue for public services. While challenges remain—ranging from security to currency volatility—the strategy emphasizes local participation and long-term gains for the Nigerian economy.
