UK Sustainable Aviation Fuel uptake on track to miss 2025 target
The latest data from the UK Department for Transport (DfT) paints a cautious picture for the government’s first annual mandate on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Official figures covering a substantial portion of 2025 indicate that SAF production and use are not yet aligning with the pace required to meet the target. While the trajectory demonstrates growing interest in cleaner aviation, several structural and market hurdles are tempering optimism about hitting the mandated share by the end of the year.
Why the target matters and what it requires
Under the government’s policy framework, airlines and fuel suppliers must ensure a increasing proportion of aviation fuel comes from sustainable sources. The mandate is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from flying by encouraging a shift away from conventional jet fuel toward SAF derived from waste and biomass, used cooking oil, or other low-emission feedstocks. Achieving the target depends on a reliable supply chain, competitive pricing, and regulators aligning incentives for airports, fuel suppliers, and operators.
Key factors behind the slower-than-expected uptake
- Production capacity: SAF plants require substantial capital and time to ramp up. While new facilities are announced, the 2025 window compresses the timeline for coming online and achieving full production scale.
- Pricing and incentives: SAF remains more expensive than conventional jet fuel in many cases. Without robust price parity or stronger policy incentives, airlines may hesitate to switch fuels rapidly, especially for short-haul routes with thinner margins.
- Regulatory alignment: The mandate depends not only on supply but also on how the policy interacts with credit systems, blending percentages, and reporting by operators. Delays or ambiguity in these mechanics can slow uptake.
- Supply chain bottlenecks: Feedstock availability, logistics, and refinery integration affect day-to-day volumes. Any disruption in feedstock supply or distribution can ripple through to the actual SAF mix used by carriers.
- Operational considerations: Airlines must ensure SAF blends are compatible with existing engines and airport infrastructure, which can add complexity and temporary frictions for deployment.
What the data suggests about the near-term outlook
Even with positive signals—new partnerships, pilot programs, and growing interest from major carriers—the current pace suggests the 2025 target is unlikely to be met. The DfT data indicates incremental growth but not the rapid acceleration needed to reach mandated SAF volumes within the calendar year. This does not imply failure of the policy, but rather highlights the difficulty of moving the market quickly in a complex energy transition for aviation.
Implications for policy and the industry
For policymakers, the result underscores the need to strengthen incentives and reduce friction across the SAF value chain. Potential measures could include clearer blending rules, accelerated permitting for new SAF plants, and targeted subsidies or tax relief that makes SAF price-competitive without distorting the market. For the aviation sector, the findings stress the importance of long-term contracts, strategic partnerships, and investment in domestic supply chains to secure reliable SAF access as demand grows.
What to watch next
Industry observers will be watching several indicators: the pace at which new SAF production facilities come online, any shifts in feedstock costs, and how airlines adapt their procurement strategies to incorporate higher SAF volumes. Government announcements on future mandates, additional funding for SAF development, and collaboration with international partners could all influence whether the UK reaches more ambitious targets in subsequent years.
