Overview: A Rainfall Catastrophe in the Horn of Africa
The October to December 2025 rainfall season has delivered an almost unprecedented failure across much of Somalia, with spillover impacts evident in eastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. Early indicators suggested an irregular season, but the extent of rainfall shortfalls has far exceeded typical dry spells. By December, the chance of recovery rains was largely foregone, triggering severe drought conditions that threaten livelihoods, livestock, crops, and access to nutritious food for millions.
Why It Matters: Food Security at Immediate Risk
Without timely and effective rainfall, crop yields collapse and pastureland dries up. For Somalia, where a large portion of households rely on rainfed farming and pastoralism, the shortfall translates into acute food insecurity, rising malnutrition, and increased reliance on humanitarian aid. Early warning systems indicate a sharp deterioration in household food consumption, rising prices for staple foods, and strained coping mechanisms among the most vulnerable groups, including children, pregnant women, and the elderly.
Key Impacts to Monitor
- declines in staple crop production and forage for livestock
- increasing community-level hunger and malnutrition rates
- heightened risk of disease outbreaks linked to malnutrition and crowded relief camps
- erosion of water sources and higher water prices for rural households
- protection and shelter needs for displaced populations and rural communities
Urgent Action Needed: A Multi-Faceted Response
Addressing this crisis requires a coordinated, multi-year strategy that combines immediate humanitarian relief with long-term resilience building. Key actions include:
- Scale up humanitarian aid to quickly deliver food, safe water, and essential health services to the most affected communities, prioritizing women-led households and vulnerable groups.
- Strengthen early warning and rapid response systems to better anticipate lean seasons, mobilize resources, and target aid where it is most needed.
- Support climate-resilient livelihoods through insurance schemes for pastoralist herds, drought-resistant seed dissemination, and access to credit for farmers to recover after losses.
- Invest in water security with emergency wells, boreholes, and water trucking where necessary, while protecting existing water resources from overuse.
- Protect nutrition and health by scaling up supplementary feeding programs for children under five and pregnant women, and ensuring vaccine and health service continuity in drought-prone areas.
- Regional coordination among Somalia, neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia to align cross-border humanitarian corridors and data sharing on needs and resources.
What This Means for Donors, Governments, and Communities
We urge national authorities, regional bodies, and international partners to view this rainfall failure as a risk multiplier that necessitates immediate funding and strategic planning. Donors should prioritize rapid-disbursement mechanisms, while governments must ensure humanitarian access during volatile security conditions. Communities should engage in livelihood diversification where feasible and participate in community-led monitoring to improve accountability and local decision-making.
Hope on the Horizon: Investments That Build Long-Term Resilience
Although the current season’s failure is devastating, it also presents an opportunity to accelerate resilience measures. Investments in weather-resilient farming, drought-tolerant crop varieties, livestock insurance, and sustainable water management can reduce the severity of future lean seasons. Collaborative climate adaptation programs—grounded in local knowledge and supported by robust data—offer a path toward steadier food supplies and safer livelihoods for households across the Horn of Africa.
How to Help Now
Individuals and organizations can contribute by supporting reputable humanitarian agencies operating in the region, advocating for faster donor disbursements, and promoting transparency in relief delivery. Information-sharing and coordinated action will be essential to avert a broader food security catastrophe as the Horn of Africa faces a severe October-December rainfall shortfall in 2025.
