Overview: A Season of Failed Rainfall and Rising Risk
The October–December 2025 rainfall season across large parts of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia has largely failed, marking a critical setback for food security in the Horn of Africa. Early assessments indicate that late-season rains in December were insufficient to reverse the drought trajectory, leaving communities short of pasture, fodder, and drinking water. The consequences are expected to ripple through households, markets, and humanitarian systems at a time when resilience was already strained by previous lean seasons.
Why This Matters for Food Security
Many rural households rely on seasonal rains to sustain crops and herd health. When rain fails, crop yields plummet, livestock losses mount, and prices rise, pushing vulnerable families into deeper crises. In this region, food insecurity can quickly escalate into malnutrition, especially among children and pregnant women. Governments, humanitarian agencies, and development partners must contend with supply gaps, disrupted market functioning, and stretched emergency response capacities.
Geographic Impact and Early Indicators
Observed rainfall deficits span parts of Somalia’s southern regions, eastern Kenya, and southern-to-central areas of Ethiopia. Key indicators include:
- Reduced pasture and browse for livestock, increasing herd mortality risk.
- Declining crop planting success and lower yields for staple crops.
- Rising livestock prices and constrained household purchasing power, affecting access to food.
- Heightened vulnerability in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities with limited social protection.
Seasonal forecasts warn that late rains in December are unlikely to compensate for earlier deficits, making the humanitarian window for preventive action more urgent than ever.
Urgent Action: Protecting Lives and Livelihoods
To avert a deeper humanitarian crisis, a multi-faceted response is required now, including:
- Rapid humanitarian funding: Accelerated donor commitments to scale up food assistance, cash transfers, and nutritional support for vulnerable groups.
- Livestock support and market stabilization: Animal feed provisions, veterinary services, and safe market operations to maintain livestock assets and livelihoods.
- Nutritional programs: Expanded treatment for acute malnutrition, especially for children under five and pregnant women, alongside preventive measures.
- Water, sanitation, and hygiene: Emergency water trucking, borehole rehabilitation, and sanitation to prevent disease spread amid water scarcity.
- Agricultural resilience: Provision of drought-tolerant seeds, inputs, and extension services to enable quick production recovery where feasible.
- Social protection: Targeted cash or in-kind support to the most affected households to safeguard basic consumption and dietary needs.
Coordination among governments, UN agencies, NGOs, and local communities is essential to ensure resources reach the most vulnerable populations efficiently and transparently.
What Communities Can Do Now
Local efforts to adapt to a drier-than-normal season can help mitigate immediate risks. Households should consider:
- Protecting and sharing scarce water resources; prioritizing nutrition for young children and nursing mothers.
- Preserving herd health through available veterinary care and feed support where accessible.
- Accessing safe cash or food assistance as programs become available, with awareness of targeting criteria and eligibility.
Looking Ahead: Monitoring and Preparedness
This rainfall failure underscores the need for enhanced early warning systems, climate-informed planning, and resilient social protection frameworks. International and regional partners should bolster monitoring to detect emerging shocks quickly, enabling timely-scale responses that prevent hunger and malnutrition from spiraling out of control.
Conclusion: A Call to Action
The 2025 October–December rainfall shortfall in the Horn of Africa presents a clear and urgent danger to food security in Somalia and neighboring areas. Immediate, well-coordinated action is essential to protect lives, preserve livelihoods, and stabilize communities as weather patterns continue to challenge traditional farming and pastoral livelihoods.
