Overview: A soggy close to 2025
The housing market in New Zealand appears headed for a soggy finish to 2025, with November sales slipping and prices broadly moving sideways. Data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) shows a softer tone as buyers and sellers navigate regional differences, rising interest costs, and ongoing economic uncertainty. While a dip in activity is not unusual as the year wraps up, the breadth of the slowdown is drawing attention from market watchers and policymakers alike.
November sales: slipping but not collapsing
REINZ reported 7268 residential transactions in November, down 4.4% from October. The month’s figure continues a trend of more modest activity compared with earlier in the year, when listing stocks and competitive bidding cycles were more common. A monthly drop in sales does not automatically translate into a market-wide downturn; it can reflect seasonal dynamics, bank lending conditions, and price expectations shaping buyer urgency as the holidays approach.
Regional contrasts
Even in a nationwide softening, regional variance remains pronounced. Some regions may experience steadier demand due to local employment markets or affordability gaps narrowing relative to incomes, while others could see a softer price trajectory as inventory levels rise. For prospective buyers, this means opportunities may exist in pockets where listings are plentiful and financing remains accessible, albeit with careful due diligence on due dates and closing costs.
Prices: movement sideways
Across November, property prices largely held steady. The market’s price signal has shifted from rapid shifts in earlier years to a more cautious, sideways movement as buyers weigh mortgage rates and valuation expectations. Sellers are often adjusting asking prices with a focus on realistic pricing, aiming to attract serious buyers amid heightened competition for finance. The neutral price direction suggests buyers aren’t seeing the urgency that marked some previous peak periods, while sellers aren’t facing a sudden price collapse either.
What this means for buyers and sellers
For buyers, a slower market can improve negotiating leverage, particularly in markets with ample stock. It also means more time for mortgage planning and diligence, as lenders scrutinize income, deposits, and debt-to-income ratios in a higher-rate environment. First-home buyers might find relief in more attainable price bands, but they should remain mindful of regional disparities and potential changes to borrowing conditions before year-end.
For sellers, the backdrop of subdued activity calls for careful positioning. Pricing strategies that reflect current market conditions, transparent disclosures, and flexible settlement terms can help attract qualified buyers. In a market where prices aren’t advancing rapidly, the emphasis shifts to value communication, presentation, and targeting the right buyer profile rather than chasing sky-high expectations.
Looking ahead to Christmas and beyond
Seasonal patterns often slow activity in the final months of the year. In addition to the holiday pause, potential policy shifts, inflation trends, and mortgage rate expectations will influence the market’s direction as 2025 ends and 2026 begins. Analysts suggest staying attuned to economic signals, employment data, and regional housing demand to gauge whether the sogginess will extend into the new year or give way to a more stable, if modest, recovery.
Expert view and practical tips
Industry observers emphasise patience and preparation. Buyers should secure pre-approval, monitor listings daily, and be ready to act when a favorable opportunity arises. Sellers are advised to conduct honest pricing reviews, maintain good property presentation, and consider targeted marketing to in-demand buyer segments. Both sides can benefit from incremental improvements in listing quality and clear, transparent communication about timelines and conditions.
Bottom line
November’s sale numbers and the price trend point to a housing market that remains steady but not buoyant as Christmas nears. The soggy end to 2025 is plausible, with variations by region and property type likely to persist. Buyers who are prepared and informed may find value, while sellers who align expectations with current market realities are more likely to close successfully before year-end.
