Alberta Poised to Move Ahead of British Columbia in Population by 2038
New projections from Statistics Canada suggest that Alberta could overtake British Columbia to become the third most populated province in Canada within the next 12 to 13 years. The agency’s modeling, released in a recent update, outlines several scenarios for demographic growth, aging trends, and migration patterns that together shape the province-by-province population forecast for the coming decades.
What the Projections Say
Statistics Canada explored ten projection scenarios to account for uncertainties like birth rates, death rates, and internal and international migration. Across these scenarios, Alberta consistently demonstrates stronger population growth than British Columbia, driven by a combination of natural increase and net in-migration. While the exact year of overtaking BC varies slightly by scenario, several estimates place Alberta’s population as surpassing British Columbia by the mid-to-late 2030s, with 2038 emerging as a commonly cited milestone for the threshold to occur under several plausible trajectories.
Key Drivers Behind Alberta’s Growth
The projected rise hinges on several interlocking factors. First, Alberta’s economy and job market have historically drawn workers from other provinces and countries, anchoring a steady flow of people seeking opportunities in sectors like energy, construction, health care, and tech-adjacent fields. Second, Alberta’s birth rates, while fluctuating with broader national trends, contribute to natural population growth. Third, internal migration patterns—people relocating from provinces with slower growth or higher living costs—have repeatedly favored Alberta in recent years.
Experts caution that these projections are not guarantees. They are conditional on current trends holding, and any major shifts—such as a sudden change in energy markets, housing affordability, or immigration policy—could alter the trajectory. Nonetheless, the analysis indicates that Alberta’s demographic momentum could reshape the provincial population landscape by the end of the decade and into the 2030s.
Implications for Markets, Infrastructure, and Policy
If Alberta does overtake British Columbia in population, several ripple effects could follow. A larger population could intensify demand for housing, transit, schools, and health care services, nudging policymakers to accelerate infrastructure investments and expand urban planning programs. For employers, a growing labor pool might support expansion in cities like Calgary and Edmonton, encouraging business relocation or scale-up activity. At the same time, provincial and municipal governments may need to address wage growth, housing affordability, and service delivery to sustain a high quality of life for residents.
Two Central Questions for Stakeholders
1) How will Alberta balance rapid population growth with affordable housing and sustainable infrastructure? Without concerted planning, growth can strain city cores and outlying neighborhoods alike. 2) How will British Columbia respond? The province has long positioned itself as a destination for skilled workers and families; evolving demographics could prompt BC to refine its immigration strategies and housing policies to retain talent.
Looking Ahead
As Canada continues to evolve demographically, projections like those from Statistics Canada offer valuable foresight for governments, planners, and businesses. While the 2038 milestone is not guaranteed, the likelihood that Alberta could become the country’s third most populated province underscores a broader shift in regional dynamics. Stakeholders should view these forecasts as a call to invest in livability—housing, public services, and inclusive growth—so that population gains translate into enduring prosperity for Alberta and the wider Canadian economy.
