Market Status: Nifty Brushes Consolidation Ahead of Budget
In the lead-up to the Budget week, market strategist Milan Vaishnav, MSTA, founder of Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, outlined a cautiously optimistic view for the Nifty. While acknowledging a potential for minor downside, he suggested that a major market correction remains unlikely. The focus is on a broad trading range that could persist for a while, with the key support and resistance zones identified around 24,500 and 24,750, respectively.
Vaishnav’s outlook captures a delicate balance between cautious positioning and selective bets. In volatile markets, a predictable range reduces downside risk and helps traders allocate capital more efficiently. For traders watching the Nifty, the current phase emphasizes stock-specific opportunities rather than sweeping portfolio overhauls.
Key Stock Commentary: Paytm, HCL Tech, and Tech Mahindra
Among individual names, Paytm (Paytm) is attracting attention for a potential rebound. The stock has drawn interest from traders looking for a catalyst in Budget week, with the possibility of a short-term bounce if overall sentiment improves and buying interest returns to momentum plays in the fintech space.
On the technology front, HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra are seen as candidates for upside within a choppy market. HCL Tech has long been favored by investors who expect steady execution and a return of value through enhanced margins and growth in IT services, cloud, and digital engineering. Tech Mahindra, with its mix of traditional IT services and newer offerings, could benefit from strategic client wins and productized services that increasingly resonate with enterprise buyers seeking digital transformation.
However, Vaishnav cautions that stock-specific triggers must align with broader market support. In a range-bound environment, even well-positioned names can stall without a supportive macro backdrop or elevated volatility. Traders are advised to watch for momentum shifts that could confirm early signs of resilience in these names or signal a pause in upside momentum.
Strategic Takeaways for Traders and Investors
- Range focus: Expect the Nifty to remain within the 24,500-24,750 band for the near term. Breakouts or breakdowns from this zone should be warranted by meaningful changes in liquidity, macro data, or domestic policy cues.
- Stock-specific bets: Paytm for a potential rebound; HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra as upside candidates if they sustain positive price action and improve risk-reward dynamics.
- Risk management: In a range, traders should use defined stop losses and avoid over-leveraging, focusing on high-conviction setups with favorable technicals and solid fundamentals.
- Catalysts to watch: Budget week announcements, sector rotation trends, and any policy signals that could impact consumer fintech spending, IT budgets, and digital transformation demand.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
For long-term investors, the current setup may favor selectively adding exposure to high-quality IT names that can weather volatility and deliver earnings growth. Short-term traders, meanwhile, should prioritize liquidity and clear confirmation signals before entering positions in Paytm, HCL Tech, or Tech Mahindra. The overarching message from Milan Vaishnav is to stay patient within a defined range and allow price action to reveal the next leg of the market’s move.
Bottom Line
As Budget week approaches, the Nifty’s path appears to lie in a constrained corridor, with patient traders eyeing stock-specific opportunities. Paytm’s rebound potential, coupled with upside in HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra, could offer valuable pockets of alpha as the market digests policy cues and macro data. Vigilance and disciplined risk controls will be essential to capitalize on the next leg of trend development.
