Overview
In a recent Detroit economic speech, former President Donald Trump highlighted several economic claims about inflation, prices, and tariffs. This fact-check reviews those assertions against current and historical data, clarifying what has changed during his term and who ultimately bears the costs of tariffs on Chinese goods.
Inflation and overall price trends
Claim: Inflation has “stopped,” with consumer prices going down during this presidential term.
Reality: Inflation has fluctuated since the start of the current term. In most years and quarters, consumer prices rose year over year, with periods of slower growth and, in some months, declines in specific categories. For the broad measure of inflation used by the Federal Reserve and many economists, prices have not consistently fallen across the entire economy. It is common for inflation to ease from a peak while still remaining higher than target, or to show monthly volatility due to supply chain dynamics, energy markets, and demand shifts. A blanket statement that inflation has stopped does not reflect the running totals and monthly data that show ongoing price movement in multiple sectors.
Key nuance
Inflation trends are imperfectly parallel to consumer sentiment or the pricing of all goods. Even when the overall inflation rate cools, many essential items—such as housing costs, healthcare, and transportation—may rise or remain elevated. Analysts often distinguish between headline inflation (all items) and core inflation (excluded food and energy), which can diverge in the short term. For a precise assessment, it helps to reference the latest CPI releases and the Federal Reserve’s inflation projections.
Grocery prices and food costs
Claim: Grocery prices are rising, not starting to fall “rapidly.”
Reality: Grocery prices have seen fluctuations tied to supply shocks, weather, labor markets, and global commodity prices. In some periods, grocery inflation has cooled or slowed, while in others, it has remained elevated relative to historical norms. There isn’t a uniform, nationwide “rapid fall” in grocery prices during the current term. Consumers can experience price changes unevenly across stores, regions, and product categories. The overall trajectory for grocery baskets may show a slower pace of increase or even temporary stabilization, but a rapid nationwide decline is not supported by typical price-trend data over a sustained period.
Tariffs and who pays—the China question
Claim: US tariffs on Chinese imports are paid by, or primarily borne by, China.
Reality: Tariffs at the border are paid by U.S. importers, manufacturers, or retailers who bring goods into the country. Many instances see tariff costs passed along to American consumers in higher prices, or absorbed by businesses reducing margins. The government collects tariffs from importers, not from the exporting country. In economic terms, tariffs can be borne by three groups: importers, businesses down the supply chain, and, eventually, consumers. The distribution of that burden depends on market structure, competition, and the ability of firms to pass costs through. In practice, even when tariffs are set by the US, the ultimate effect on prices can be felt by households through higher grocery, electronics, and consumer goods prices, while some firms may absorb part of the cost to stay competitive.
Trade policy context
While tariffs are a tool of trade policy, their effects are nuanced. Tariffs can raise government revenue and potentially alter the incentives for domestic production. However, most economists agree that broad tariffs tend to raise costs for consumers and businesses in the near term, and can lead to retaliatory measures that affect export sectors. The specific impact depends on which goods are taxed, the elasticity of demand, and the availability of substitute products.
Conclusion
When evaluating President Trump’s Detroit speech, it’s essential to distinguish bold political claims from data-driven economic trends. Inflation has not universally “stopped,” and grocery prices have shown mixed movements rather than a guaranteed rapid decline. Tariffs on Chinese goods are borne by a combination of importers and, ultimately, consumers, with the precise distribution varying by market and company. For voters and analysts, the most reliable judgments come from the latest official statistics on CPI, grocery price indexes, and tariff impact studies from credible sources such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. International Trade Commission, and independent economists.
What to watch next
Keep an eye on quarterly CPI reports, food-at-home inflation measures, and the evolving trade-data on tariff collections and their pass-through to prices. These indicators provide the most accurate picture of price dynamics and the real-world impact of tariffs beyond campaign rhetoric.
