Introduction: A pivotal moment for ASEAN-led peace efforts
The Philippines, as the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has taken on a challenging task: coaxing Myanmar’s military regime to honor the bloc’s long-stalled peace plan. Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro recently led the first visit under the new chairmanship, signaling ASEAN’s renewed, though cautious, attempt to push for a credible path to stability in Myanmar.
Context: Why Myanmar remains the bloc’s most persistent headache
Myanmar’s military rulers seized control in 2021, triggering a deep political crisis and widespread human rights concerns. ASEAN has long sought a consensual framework to end violence, restore civilian governance, and protect civilians across the country. However, the junta’s reluctance to fully implement key elements of the peace plan has frustrated many members, complicating ASEAN’s ability to present a unified front.
The role of the chair: Tempering pressures with diplomacy
As ASEAN chair, the Philippines inherits the responsibility of balancing member-state concerns with the bloc’s collective commitment to a peace process. Secretary Lazaro’s mission is twofold: keep Myanmar engaged in dialogue and maintain pressure on the junta to adhere to agreed steps, including ceasefires, humanitarian access, and a roadmap to civilian rule.
What Lazaro’s visit signals for ASEAN diplomacy
The visit marks a practical test of ASEAN’s centrality. It demonstrates the bloc’s willingness to deploy diplomatic channels, public statements, and side meetings to advance the peace plan, even as member states differ on the pace and scope of reforms. Lazaro’s discussions with junta leadership are intended to clarify timelines, verify commitments, and identify concrete milestones that could unlock greater international support for Myanmar’s transition.
Key diplomatic levers at play
Diplomacy in this context relies on careful sequencing of actions: reaffirming the six-point consensus, facilitating humanitarian corridors, and offering a framework for inclusive dialogue with civil society, ethnic minorities, and displaced communities. ASEAN also seeks to keep other regional and global partners aligned with the shared objective while avoiding actions that could fracture regional unity.
Challenges and opportunities on the horizon
Early optimism must contend with a grim on-the-ground reality: violence persists in several regions, civilians bear the brunt of the conflict, and international attention is polarized. Yet there are tangible opportunities: renewed dialogue channels, targeted humanitarian aid, and a potential path toward confidence-building measures that could create space for broader reforms.
What success would look like
Success for ASEAN would mean measurable steps toward civilian governance, unhindered humanitarian access, and a credible timeline toward elections. For Myanmar’s people, any progress—no matter how incremental—could reduce casualties, restore essential services, and restore a sense of predictability amid years of turmoil.
Looking ahead: ASEAN’s strategy under the current chair
With Lazaro at the forefront, ASEAN will likely maintain a steady cadence of diplomacy—engaging Myanmar through formal and informal channels, coordinating with international partners, and documenting progress to hold the junta to account. The task remains arduous, but the potential payoff is significant: a durable, regional peace framework that could anchor stability in a volatile border region and set a constructive example for other complex conflicts where regional organizations strive for unity amid divergent national interests.
