Introduction: Setting the bar for 2026
The 2025 AFL season ended with some clubs punching above expectations and others failing to convert strong campaigns into September glory. As teams reset for 2026, the idea of a pass mark—the minimum standard a club must hit to be considered a genuine finals contender—has become a hot topic. This article outlines each of the top 10 clubs’ likely pass marks, with a closer look at the Adelaide Crows’ setback from a minor premiership to a straight-sets exit and what that means for their 2026 blueprint.
What constitutes a pass mark?
Pass marks vary by club based on history, list depth, drafting power, and coaching stability. In practical terms, a pass mark is the combination of wins, ladder position, and September performance that signals a club is building toward genuine premiership contention. For some franchises, a return to the Preliminary Final will satisfy the standard; for others, a top-two finish and a deep finals run is the benchmark.
Top-10 clubs and their likely pass marks for 2026
1. Adelaide Crows — After a minor premiership followed by a straight-sets exit, the Crows must convert potential into sustained pressure. Expected pass mark: reach the finals again and push deep, ideally a double-figure win improvement and at least a Preliminary Final appearance. This would signal growth from the West Lakes base and a clear step forward in 2026.
2. Melbourne Demons — A powerhouse when healthy. Pass mark: reclaim a top-two finish and contend for a Grand Final, balancing workload across the midfield and defense to avoid late-season fadeouts.
3. Brisbane Lions — Consistency will be key. Pass mark: lock in a top-four spot and a strong finals series, building on their 2025 foundations with improved efficiency inside 50 and set-piece defense.
4. Collingwood Magpies — Recent success sets high expectations. Pass mark: another finals campaign with momentum, ideally a Grand Final qualifier or better, demonstrating resilience in close games.
5. Geelong Cats — Rebuilding dynamics matter. Pass mark: steady ladder position and meaningful finals involvement, signaling a bright, long-term trajectory rather than a single-year spike.
6. West Coast Eagles — A challenging rebuild with big crowds. Pass mark: maintain competitive behavior, challenge for finals by late-season consistency, and develop youth through the spine of the team.
7. Fremantle Dockers — Under pressure to return to strong finals form. Pass mark: push for a top-eight finish and a credible finals run, showing improvements in pace and pressure in the midfield and forward line.
8. Sydney Swans — A club with high standards. Pass mark: fix structure and efficiency, finish in the top eight and make the finals run meaningful rather than merely token participation.
9. Port Adelaide Power — Expectation is elite. Pass mark: top-four finish and serious Grand Final contention, balancing a high-pressure game plan with injury resilience.
10. Richmond Tigers — A critical period of transition. Pass mark: reestablish a finals bid and introduce youth while keeping a competitive culture and avoiding long-term slumps.
Why the Crows’ 2026 strategy matters
The Adelaide Crows’ 2025 arc—finishing strong in the regular season, then exiting the finals in straight sets—highlights two key lessons for 2026: the need for depth and seamless performance under pressure. A successful 2026 season will hinge on a balanced squad, an efficient forward line, and a midfield that can sustain output through the October window. If the Crows can convert the minor premiership spark into a sustainable finals push, they will be viewed as legitimate flag contenders once more.
What this means for fans and clubs
Fans should expect clear targets from clubs: a defined ladder position, a well-structured finals campaign, and measurable improvements in key stats such as inside-50 efficiency, tackling pressure, and ability to win close games. For supporters, the 2026 pass mark becomes a simple framework to gauge progress—whether the club is moving toward September success or treading water in the middle of the table.
Conclusion: A roadmap toward September in 2026
Every AFL club has its unique path to success, but the shared aim is clear: reach the finals with momentum and then advance deeper into September. The 2026 pass marks provide a practical lens to evaluate who is truly building for the long haul and which teams are still chasing the elusive premiership spark—the flag or bust moment that defines a season.
