Reassessing 2025: A Year of Momentum and Methodology
The new year is a natural moment for reflection, and Katie Stockton of Fairlead Research uses this pause to reassess what worked in 2025. In a market defined by positive momentum and narrowed leadership, the team highlighted strategic trades that benefited from trend-following dynamics and disciplined risk management. This review examines the best moves of the year, with a focus on how market timing and sector leadership informed decisions.
Rather than chasing every hot stock, Fairlead emphasized a method built on vigilance for shifts in breadth and swing strength. The takeaway: even in a rallying environment, returns are most durable when risk controls and tactical entries accompany the trend. Stockton’s analysis of 2025 trades centers on identifying meaningful price action, avoiding crowded bets, and using price action cues to time entries and exits with tighter stop placement.
Tesla (TSLA): Navigating a High-Conviction Trend
One of Fairlead’s notable trades in 2025 featured Tesla, a name that often dominates momentum-focused discussions. The thesis centered on Tesla’s price action riding the broader market uptrend while exhibiting distinguishable momentum signals. Stockton and her team looked for pullbacks within an ongoing uptrend, paired with improving relative strength versus peers. The positioning aimed to capitalize on the stock’s tendency to extend gains when the sector leadership is broadening and risk appetite is elevated.
From a risk-management perspective, the emphasis was on controlled exposure during periods of volatility, with a clear plan for scaling out as momentum waned. The Tesla trade illustrates Fairlead’s approach: participate in the trend when the setup aligns with the macro rhythm, but avoid overconcentration in a single name. In 2025, this approach helped limit downside while maintaining participation in a sector that often drives broad market momentum.
Estee Lauder (EL): Exposure to a Resilient Consumer Name
Estee Lauder represented another core idea in Fairlead’s 2025 repertoire, reflecting the resilience of select consumer staples and premium beauty brands amid shifting consumer sentiment. The trade thesis blended price action with fundamentals that favor quality, brand equity, and earnings visibility. Stockton’s team monitored EL for sustained relative strength and clear breakouts from consolidation, signaling institutional interest and favorable supply-demand dynamics.
The EL position underscored a key principle: in markets where leadership is concentrated in a few sectors, high-quality, consistently profitable names with durable demand can offer protective ballast to a portfolio. Risk controls remained central, with reminders to keep position sizes calibrated and to adjust exposure if market breadth narrowed again or if the stock showed signs of leadership erosion.
Methodology Wins: Timeliness, Quality, and Risk Control
The overarching lesson from Fairlead’s 2025 review is not merely which stocks performed well, but how the team integrated timing, type of exposure, and risk discipline. Market timing added value when leadership was constructive and momentum broad enough to sustain follow-through. The best trades combined a favorable technical context with a defensible fundamental backdrop, and an explicit risk-management framework to protect profits and limit drawdowns.
Stockton’s commentary reinforces the idea that successful investing in a year of strong momentum requires a disciplined plan. Entries should be purposeful, exits premeditated, and position sizing aligned with portfolio risk tolerance. By anchoring decisions in price action, relative strength, and breadth signals, Fairlead aims to capture upside while reducing vulnerability to abrupt reversals.
What to Watch Next Year
As markets transition, investors should keep an eye on breadth indicators, sector leadership, and the strength of consumer-facing names. While the exact trades may evolve, the core principles—timely participation in trends, selective exposure to high-quality names, and strict risk controls—remain relevant. Katie Stockton’s 2025 review serves as a practical guide for navigating another year of potential momentum with a balanced, systematic mindset.
