Introduction: A bold call for a Canadian big-build year
Canada’s policy conversation is turning toward ambitious, infrastructure- and productivity-driven growth as 2026 approaches. With voices like Carney urging a streamlined, “build big” agenda, analysts are turning to concrete indicators that reveal whether Canada can translate ambition into durable gains. Here are seven essential charts to monitor as the year 2026 nears and policymakers debate how to cut red tape while boosting investment, productivity, and living standards.
1) Public investment vs. private investment: The investment mix
The first chart to watch tracks the mix of public and private investment over the next two years. An alignment toward higher private sector investment, supported by credible government incentives and faster permit approvals, would suggest a healthier private sector response. Conversely, persistent gaps could imply that policy friction remains a key drag on meaningful capital formation.
2) Capex as a share of GDP: The capital stock booster
Capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP offers a window into how much the economy is expanding its productive base. A rising capex ratio, especially in infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy, signals long-run capacity gains. Watch for a step-change if regulatory hurdles are reduced and financing costs become more predictable.
3) Labor productivity growth: The productivity pulse
Productivity growth is the backbone of living standards. The chart tracking output per hour worked reveals whether big-build initiatives translate into efficiency gains. Policy measures that support innovation, skills training, and sectoral modernization should show up as stronger productivity curves in 2026 and beyond.
4) Unemployment and labor force participation: The workforce dynamic
A robust labor market combined with higher participation is essential to sustaining growth. The relevant chart compares unemployment trends with participation rates to assess whether the economy can absorb more capital-intensive activity without overheating. Higher participation—especially among underrepresented groups—would support a broader, more resilient expansion.
5) Inflation and long-run inflation expectations: The price backdrop
Any build-out push must balance demand with price stability. The chart showing inflation vs. expectations helps gauge whether policy can keep prices stable while encouraging investment. Anchored expectations and credible inflation control are critical to lowering the real cost of capital for large projects.
6) Regulatory burden index: Red tape as a growth variable
Seven indicators can converge into a single red tape index: permitting timelines, approval bottlenecks, zoning delays, intergovernmental coordination, and compliance costs. A downward trend in this index would be a practical signal that policy reforms are taking hold, shortening the cycle from proposal to project realization and encouraging more scalable investments.
7) Regional investment momentum: Geography matters
Canada’s vast landscape means growth is not uniform. The regional investment charts show where dollars are flowing—and where policy changes could unlock clusters of productivity. Strong gains in provinces like Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec could mirror national efforts while also highlighting where targeted reforms are most effective.
Putting the seven charts together: What to expect in 2026
Taken together, these seven charts create a narrative: if Canada can increase private investment, raise productive capital, boost productivity, expand the workforce, maintain price stability, reduce regulatory frictions, and enhance regional momentum, a deliberate big-build strategy in 2026 could translate into higher living standards and stronger growth. Policymakers will be judged not just by headline targets but by the consistency of the data—especially how quickly the red tape is dismantled without compromising oversight and quality.
Policy implications and practical steps
To turn ambition into achievement, three practical steps emerge from the chart-driven outlook:
- Adopt a transparent, time-bound regulatory reform pathway with published milestones for permit and approval timelines.
- Enhance investment incentives that de-risk large projects, paired with a clear, stable macroeconomic framework to lower the cost of capital.
- Invest in skills and innovation to ensure productivity gains lagging behind can catch up as infrastructure expands.
Conclusion: The charts as a roadmap
In the push to “build big” in 2026, the numbers—seen through these seven charts—will be the most persuasive arguments. They translate political ambition into a measurable, actionable plan. If the data align with reform and investment, Canada could set a durable path toward stronger growth and higher living standards in the years ahead.
