Overview: A Year of decisively pushing growth through policy reform
Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for a bold “build big” impulse in Canada, with 2026 framed as the year to cut red tape and unlock investment. To investors, policy makers, and workers, seven economic charts provide a concise map of where Canada stands and where it must go to sustain a productive expansion. Prepared by senior economists Mike Holden and Alicia Planincic of the Business Council of Alberta, the analysis translates policy ambitions into tangible metrics that households and firms can monitor.
1) GDP growth trajectory: from promise to delivery
The first chart tracks quarterly real GDP growth, highlighting whether Canada’s economy is shifting from a post-pandemic rebound to a steadier expansion. A sustained uptick in output, supported by infrastructure and energy investments, would signal that cutting red tape is translating into faster project approvals and bigger capital formation. The baseline remains modest, but policy reform can push growth toward 2%–2.5% annually over the next two years.
2) Unemployment and labor-force participation
A healthy labor market is the backbone of a build-big strategy. The unemployment rate, alongside the labor-force participation rate, shows whether Canadians can access new jobs created by infrastructure, housing, and private-sector capital projects. A declining unemployment rate paired with rising participation would indicate that policy easing is translating into real hiring and broader workforce engagement.
3) Inflation and real incomes
Inflation trends determine how much room policymakers have to stimulate the economy without eroding real incomes. The inflation chart compares headline and core measures, offering clues about whether easing supply-chain frictions and targeted regulatory reforms are stabilizing prices while preserving room for investment in capital projects that boost productivity.
4) Housing affordability and construction activity
Access to affordable housing underpins consumer stability and sits at the intersection of growth and policy. This chart tracks housing starts, permit issuance, and affordability indices. A successful 2026 plan would show rising home construction and narrowing affordability gaps, supported by faster approvals for projects and zoning reforms that unlock density in urban cores and peri-urban areas.
5) Business investment and sectoral composition
Investment charts reveal where capital is flowing. The sectoral breakdown highlights energy, manufacturing, tech, and construction. The 2026 build agenda should lift capex intentions, especially in tradable sectors that boost exports and productivity. A robust improvement in business investment signals that firms anticipate shorter regulatory timelines and better access to financing for large-scale projects.
6) Public debt and fiscal space
Canada’s fiscal health matters for long-run growth. The debt-to-GDP trajectory shows whether expansionary policies are sustainable. If red-tape reductions are paired with targeted spending that yields high social and economic returns, Canada can maintain credibility with investors while funding critical infrastructure without crowding out private investment.
7) Productivity growth and human capital
Productivity remains a key constraint on long-run gains. This chart tracks total factor productivity, along with investments in skills and technology adoption. A successful 2026 strategy should correlate with higher productivity growth, underpinned by faster regulatory approvals, investment in modern infrastructure, and a more agile business environment that helps firms deploy new technologies efficiently.
Putting the charts into action: turning data into policy wins
For Canada to “build big” in 2026, the red-tape cutting must be real, measurable, and time-bound. The seven charts offer a practical dashboard for both policymakers and businesses: if investment rises, housing affordability improves, and productivity climbs while debt remains manageable, Canada can sustain a durable growth path. The economists emphasize that success will depend on transparent timelines, accountable agencies, and a clear pipeline of shovel-ready projects that unlock private capital without compromising fiscal health.
What households should watch
Households can track these indicators to gauge progress: are jobs plentiful and wages rising in real terms? Is inflation contained as supply chains normalize? Do homes become more affordable as new building gets underway? These questions connect abstract charts to daily life, revealing whether 2026 becomes a turning point for Canada’s economy.
