Understanding the scale of China’s drills around Taiwan
When Beijing conducts large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, it does more than test weapons or rehearsing maneuvers. It sends a carefully choreographed message to Taipei, regional powers, and global audiences: China is willing to deploy substantial forces and modern systems to assert its view of territorial integrity and to deter any moves toward formal independence.
What Beijing seeks to signal with “the big guns”
Several strategic aims commonly underpin these operations. First, Beijing aims to deter drift toward independence by showing that the PLA can rapidly encircle Taiwan with air, sea, and joint forces. The visibility of large formations, naval ships, fighter jets, and missiles acts as a warning to political leaders in Taipei and to Washington about the costs of any unilateral change in the status quo.
Second, the drills test and demonstrate capabilities. Large-scale exercises allow China to validate command-and-control networks, logistics, precision strike capacity, and sea denial techniques in a integrated environment. For observers, the drills provide a live assessment of how Beijing’s forces would perform in a future crisis and how quickly the PLA can scale up operations in an emergency.
How the drills fit into broader regional strategy
Military coercion around Taiwan is part of what analysts describe as a “dual deterrence” approach: deterring Taiwan from formal independence while also deterring international actors from supporting or accelerating any independence bid. By rehearsing complex, joint operations near the Taiwan Strait, Beijing seeks to raise the perceived risk and cost of any confrontation, hoping to shape calculations by Taiwan’s leadership, regional neighbors, and the United States.
These exercises also matter for regional power dynamics. Nearby observers watch for changes in naval deployments, air-defense coverage, and the readiness of anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systems. The drills are a signal that Beijing intends to keep a dominant presence in the maritime commons around Taiwan and to contest freedom-of-navigation efforts that support Taipei’s international space.
What this means for Taiwan and international partners
For Taiwan, the drills reinforce the importance of robust defense planning, alliance considerations, and public messaging that clarifies deterrence and diplomatic pathways. While large-scale exercises are aimed at signaling, Taiwan’s response has often emphasized resilience, civilian preparedness, and international communication to ensure that fear does not translate into rash or escalatory actions.
From a U.S.-China perspective, these drills are part of ongoing strategic competition. Washington has reiterated commitments to Taiwan’s security while urging de-escalation and avoiding miscalculation. Allies and partners in the region monitor the drills for implications to regional security architectures, supply chains, and crisis management protocols.
Risks and potential consequences
Large exercises carry escalation risks. Misinterpretation of intentions or accidental incidents could intensify tensions, prompting counter-mobilizations that raise the likelihood of a crisis. Analysts emphasize the importance of clear communication channels, deconfliction measures, and transparent explanations of exercise objectives to minimize misunderstandings among regional actors and the global community.
In sum, the scale and speed of China’s drills around Taiwan reflect a calculated effort to project power, test capabilities, and shape strategic calculations without immediately crossing into full-scale war. The tactic sits at the intersection of deterrence, capability development, and regional signaling—a triad that continues to define cross-strait relations and regional security in the Indo-Pacific.
