Open trade and digital investment: a path to AI-driven growth
Global commerce could see a dramatic jump in activity as artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes how goods and services are produced, bought, and sold across borders. A new WTO report argues that aligning AI adoption with open trade rules, targeted skills development, and robust digital infrastructure could unlock nearly a 40% increase in AI-driven trade by 2040. The findings underscore a coordinated strategy where policy, technology, and investment converge to expand global commerce while maintaining fair competition and secure data flows.
What the report says about the AI-driven trade boost
The WTO analysis suggests that AI will not simply automate routines within national borders but will augment cross-border trade through smarter logistics, personalized services, and more efficient production networks. By 2040, AI-enabled processes could streamline supply chains, reduce transaction costs, and expand participation from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in international markets. Crucially, the projected 40% boost hinges on a set of enabling conditions: open trade rules, investment in digital infrastructure, and rapid skills development that prepare workers for an AI-augmented economy.
Open trade rules as a critical enabler
Trade liberalization, predictable rules, and interoperable standards create a fertile environment for AI applications to flourish across borders. The WTO highlights the need for transparent regulatory frameworks that facilitate data flows, protect intellectual property, and ensure fair competition. When countries align their policies with open trade principles, firms can leverage AI to optimize production, sourcing, and distribution without facing unnecessary barriers or fragmentation in digital markets.
Digital investment and infrastructure
Beyond policy, the report emphasizes the importance of digital infrastructure and investment. High-speed connectivity, secure data storage, cloud capabilities, and cybersecurity are foundational to AI-driven trade. Governments and private sector partners must coordinate to expand universal access to digital services, lower the cost of data transfers, and foster interoperable platforms that support cross-border e-commerce, customs digitization, and digital payments.
The skills gap and workforce readiness
A successful AI-enhanced trade ecosystem requires a workforce equipped to design, manage, and maintain AI-enabled systems. The WTO stresses upskilling and reskilling across sectors—logistics, manufacturing, finance, and services—to ensure that workers can collaborate with AI rather than be displaced by it. Education systems, vocational training, and targeted public-private partnerships will be essential to translate AI potential into meaningful employment and higher productivity globally.
Policy implications for governments and businesses
To realize the projected gains, policymakers should pursue three interconnected priorities: adopt and harmonize open trade rules that support data-driven commerce; invest in digital infrastructure and secure data ecosystems; and implement inclusive skills programs that prepare workers for AI-integrated workflows. Businesses, for their part, should align AI adoption with cross-border compliance, strengthen supply chain transparency, and participate in multilateral discussions to harmonize standards and reduce fragmentation in digital markets.
Outlook for 2040 and beyond
While the potential benefits are substantial, the ultimate outcome will depend on sustained collaboration among governments, industry, and civil society. The WTO report frames AI as a catalyst rather than a substitute for good trade policy and investment in people. If nations commit to open, rule-based trade complemented by strong digital infrastructure and workforce development, the global economy could experience a sizable, durable uplift in AI-driven trade by 2040—creating new jobs, expanding markets, and raising living standards around the world.
