Nigeria’s oil ambition gains traction
Nigeria’s energy leadership is signaling renewed confidence in a higher oil output trajectory. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), has asserted that an oil production benchmark of 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2026 is achievable. This projection sits at the center of a broader plan to scale Nigeria’s energy capacity while attracting substantial investment and improving market competitiveness.
Roadmap to 1.8 mbpd: what needs to happen
According to Ojulari, reaching 1.8 mbpd will require sustained improvements in upstream productivity, enhanced cost efficiency, and a favourable investment climate. The strategy includes modernizing exploration and development, reducing logistical bottlenecks, and leveraging Nigeria’s vast hydrocarbon resources. Industry observers note that the target aligns with gradual increases in exploration success, favorable market conditions, and targeted domestic reforms that can unlock new production capacity.
Capital commitments and strategic investment
The leadership has flagged a roughly $30 billion investment push by 2030. The investment is expected to bolster upstream activity, revitalize aging fields, and support the operational backbone required for higher output. If deployed effectively, the funds could also catalyze ancillary sectors, including mid-stream infrastructure and local content development, which would help retain more value within the Nigerian economy.
Oil and gas mix: 1.7 mbpd in 2025, gas surging
Ojulari noted that 2025 could see oil output near 1.7 mbpd, with natural gas production rising beyond 7 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d). The gas upside is especially significant as global markets increasingly demand cleaner energy sources and Nigeria expands gas-to-power projects and exports. A stronger gas position could also support pricing power for oil through broader energy market stability and long-term contracting arrangements.
Market dynamics: optimism and competition
While the target is ambitious, Ojulari emphasized that competition in the oil market will likely favor Nigeria as the market adjusts. Improvements in governance, transparency, and regulatory certainty could attract both state-backed and private sector capital. Nigerian producers may benefit from a more predictable policy framework, favorable exchange terms, and a growing domestic market that absorbs a larger share of production domestically.
What this means for Nigerians and the region
A successful push toward 1.8 mbpd by 2026, coupled with stronger gas fundamentals, could bolster public revenues, fund social programs, and support power stability. The prospect of a $30 billion investment by 2030 signals a real opportunity to diversify the economy away from oil alone, create jobs, and upgrade critical infrastructure across the energy value chain.
Risks and considerations
Despite the upbeat outlook, several risks could temper progress. Global oil price volatility, financing hurdles, and geopolitical tensions could affect investment flows. Domestic risks include policy delays, funding gaps, and execution risk in large-scale infrastructure projects. Mitigating these factors will require ongoing reform momentum, credible timelines, and robust project governance to sustain confidence among investors and partners.
Conclusion: a pivotal era for Nigeria’s energy sector
With 2025 on the horizon and a clear path to 2026, Nigeria’s oil sector stands at a crossroads. Ojulari’s remarks frame a disciplined plan to push output higher while leveraging gas gains and a major investment drive. If Nigeria meets these milestones, the nation could reinforce its role as a key energy supplier in Africa and a more resilient economy in the years ahead.
