Open trade, AI, and growth: a path to 2040
A new report from the World Trade Organization argues that embracing open trade rules, investing in digital infrastructure, and developing AI-related skills could unlock substantial gains in global commerce. By 2040, AI-driven trade could rise by as much as 40%, reshaping how goods and services cross borders and how economies generate growth.
Why AI matters for trade
Artificial intelligence is not just a business tool for efficiency; it is becoming a central driver of how value is created in the global marketplace. From automated customs processing and smarter supply chains to personalized digital services and AI-enabled product design, AI has the potential to reduce transaction costs, shorten lead times, and expand the reach of smaller firms into international markets.
According to the WTO analysis, the gains from AI will be uneven unless policy makers take deliberate steps to align AI adoption with open trade rules and inclusive development goals. The report emphasizes that technology alone does not guarantee growth—the institutional and policy environment must support experimentation, investment, and fair competition.
Key policy pillars to maximize AI-driven trade
Open, predictable trade rules
To harness AI’s benefits, countries should maintain transparent and predictable trade regimes, including rules that facilitate cross-border data flows, protect privacy, and encourage innovation while safeguarding security. The WTO calls for multilateral collaboration to minimize fragmentation and assure that digital trade remains accessible across different jurisdictions.
Skills development and human capital
AI adoption depends on the workforce’s ability to design, implement, and govern digital technologies. The report highlights the need for ongoing training, STEM education, and reskilling programs to ensure workers can participate in AI-augmented trade and help businesses stay competitive in a fast-evolving digital economy.
Investment in digital infrastructure
Robust digital infrastructure—broadband connectivity, cloud services, cybersecurity, and reliable energy supply—forms the backbone of AI-enabled trade. Public and private investors are urged to coordinate on upgrading networks, building data centers, and ensuring affordable access for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) looking to scale internationally.
Inclusive digital ecosystems
Inclusivity matters for both growth and legitimacy. The WTO stresses measures that support SMEs, women entrepreneurs, and developing economies to participate in global value chains. The objective is to avoid a widening gap where only a subset of players benefits from AI-driven trade.
What this could mean in practice
In practice, AI-enabled trade could streamline border procedures, shorten customs clearance times, and enable dynamic pricing and demand forecasting across markets. Businesses would gain better visibility into international opportunities, while consumers could enjoy more personalized and competitively priced products. The policy framework promotes a balanced approach—encouraging innovation while maintaining safeguards against data misuse and market concentration.
Challenges and considerations
Realizing the projected 40% increase in AI-led trade will require addressing data governance, ensuring interoperability of digital standards, and securing funding for SME digital upgrades. Some economies may face initial costs in upgrading infrastructure and training workers, but the long-term payoffs include higher productivity, diversified trade flows, and increased resilience against shocks.
Conclusion: a collaborative roadmap
The WTO’s forward-looking assessment underscores that open trade rules, coupled with targeted investments in AI readiness, can unlock significant gains in global commerce. Nations that align policy, infrastructure, and workforce development with an AI-enabled trade strategy will be better positioned to participate in the digital economy of the future, driving steady growth and expanded global exchange.
