Overview: Hybrid warfare’s evolving threat in Europe
The concept of hybrid warfare, combining cyber operations, disinformation, covert influence, and conventional pressure, has long been a feature of Russia’s security strategy. While the intensity of attacks can ebb and flow, the underlying playbook remains: create uncertainty, erode trust, and exploit political fault lines. In 2024 and 2025, Europe saw fluctuating activity across cyber intrusions, disinformation campaigns, and political influence efforts. Now, as analysts look ahead to 2026, the question is not whether hybrid tactics will reappear, but how they might adapt to new technologies, stricter defense postures, and evolving international norms.
What contributes to a potential resurgence in 2026
Several factors could push hybrid-warfare activity higher in the next year:
- Strategic intent and signaling: If Moscow aims to test Western resilience or compensate for conventional limitations, it may recalibrate hybrid operations to maximize political impact while minimizing risk to personnel and assets.
- Technological evolution: Advances in cyber tools, social media manipulation, and data analytics enable more precise influence campaigns and targeted cyber intrusions, potentially lowering costs and increasing success rates.
- Geopolitical pressures: Shifts in regional conflicts, energy diplomacy, and alliance dynamics could incentivize opportunistic hybrid activity to weaken cohesion within the EU and NATO.
- Domestic fatigue and information wars: In countries facing economic stress or domestic polarization, hybrid messaging can exploit existing grievances, complicating counter-disinformation efforts.
What the indicators tell us today
Experts monitor a range of signals to gauge risk levels. Cyber defense readiness, critical-infrastructure resilience, and the robustness of electoral and media ecosystems are primary indicators. When defense agencies publish alerts about disinformation surges or when cyber incidents spike around sensitive political events, analysts interpret these as possible precursors to more coordinated hybrid activity. Conversely, sustained improvements in public-public diplomacy, transparent information environments, and interoperable defenses can deter or blunt hybrid efforts before they gain traction.
Lessons from recent episodes
Recent episodes across Europe and neighboring regions reveal patterns that policymakers can study to bolster preparedness for 2026:
- Disinformation as a force multiplier: False narratives tied to economic concerns or security fears tend to gain traction before elections or policy debates, amplifying existing fault lines.
- Cyber as an enabling tool: Spear-phishing, supply-chain intrusions, and ransomware can disrupt public services, creating a climate of unpredictability that favors actors who master risk management.
- Covert influence and political engineering: Policy shifts, sanctions responses, or alliance-weakening narratives can be accelerated by curated online communities and shadowy information networks.
resilience strategies: preparing for 2026
Mitigating hybrid threats requires a holistic approach that blends technology, policy, and public engagement:
- Invest in cyber resilience: Regular exercises, redundancy for critical services, and prompt incident response plans reduce the disruptive potential of hybrid cyber operations.
- Counter-disinformation with transparency: Clear fact-checking, support for independent media, and rapid debunking help preserve trust in democratic processes.
- Strengthen international cooperation: Intelligence-sharing, cross-border incident response, and joint sanctions regimes deter escalation.
- Public awareness and media literacy: Equipping citizens to recognize manipulation reduces the effectiveness of hybrid messaging at the source.
While the exact timing and scale of attacks cannot be predicted with certainty, the strategic logic of hybrid warfare remains a persistent risk. European governments, institutions, and civil society should treat 2026 as a readiness exercise as much as a forecast, maintaining vigilance without surrendering the values that underpin democratic life.
Conclusion: readiness over inevitability
Russia’s hybrid-warfare toolkit is unlikely to disappear, but it can be constrained through proactive defense, resilient infrastructure, and an informed public. By translating lessons from recent episodes into practical strategies, Europe can reduce susceptibility to hybrid attacks in 2026 and beyond.
