Introduction: A Brussels Bauble with Bigger Ambitions
As the calendar turns, Europe’s political chatter returns to the parliament lobbies, committee rooms, and think-tank corridors that define the Brussels bubble. This year’s New Year’s resolution, insiders say, is a simple but ambitious one: get bigger. Not merely in terms of a ceremonial sense of pride, but in practical terms—expanding membership, deepening economic and security ties, and widening the policy toolkit that governs the European Union.
Why “Bigger”?: The Case for Enlargement and Influence
From Kyiv to Tirana, Brussels has signalled a willingness to widen the EU’s circle. The logic is twofold. First, enlargement reinforces geopolitical resilience: more member states can contribute to a stronger common foreign and security policy, standard-setting in regulatory regions, and a larger internal market. Second, expanding the Union’s internal market and democratic footprint can help stabilize neighboring regions, create growth corridors, and share the bloc’s rules-based order more broadly.
Key candidates and potential members—Ukraine, Moldova, and several Western Balkan countries—are watching closely. Each country brings its own politics and timing, but Brussels has repeatedly underscored that membership is a process of rigorous reforms, alignment with EU rules, and demonstrable progress on governance, rule of law, and market standards.
What “Bigger” Means in Practice
The practical steps behind a bigger EU include several parallel tracks:
- Enlargement negotiations: The accession process requires chapters covering areas from competition policy to justice and home affairs. While timelines are nuanced, the EU’s framework remains clear: candidate countries must meet stringent accession criteria.
- Budget and absorption capacity: A larger EU needs a robust budget and effective mechanisms to ensure member states can absorb funds, implement projects, and avoid administrative bottlenecks.
- Regulatory alignment: New members would be expected to fully implement EU rules, standards, and governance norms—affecting everything from state aid to environmental protections and digital regulation.
- Security and resilience: An expanded Union would coordinate more closely on defense, cyber security, energy diversification, and resilience against external shocks.
Internal Dynamics: Managing Growth Within the Union
Growth isn’t only about new members. It’s also about how the EU manages a larger polity. Internal dynamics—vetoes, qualified majority voting, and the balance of influence between institutions and among member states—will shape the pace and scope of enlargement. Critics warn that larger blocs can complicate consensus-building, dilute national sway, and strain budgetary discipline. Proponents argue that growth can be paired with stronger governance, more robust funding for cohesion and rural development, and a doubling down on democracy and rule-of-law benchmarks.
Key Fronts to Watch in 2025
- Ukraine and Moldova: The EU has shown sustained interest in integrating these partners more deeply, conditional on reforms and security considerations. The path to candidate status, negotiation chapters, and financial support are all on the agenda.
- Western Balkans: The bloc continues to navigate reform momentum, regional cooperation, and economic alignment with EU rules, aiming to keep momentum against regional volatility.
- Budgetary discipline: With enlargement, the EU faces scrutiny over how funds are allocated, monitored, and evaluated for impact on growth, infrastructure, and climate transition.
Public Sentiment and the Brussles Bubble
Public opinion across member states remains mixed about the pace and depth of enlargement. While many voters welcome the political and economic stability that tokens of EU unity can offer, others worry about sovereignty, costs, and the pace of reforms required from new members. The administration and media ecosystem in Brussels—often dubbed the Brussels bubble—will need to translate complex policy debates into accessible narratives that reassure citizens while maintaining ambition.
Conclusion: A Bigger EU, Not a Bigger Headache
The New Year’s resolution to get bigger is not simply about admitting more members. It is about building a more resilient, coherent, and prosperous Europe. If Brussels can align the timetable, fund the expansion responsibly, and sustain credible reform paths for candidate countries, 2025 could mark a turning point—one where enlargement and deeper integration reinforce the EU’s role as a global actor while delivering tangible benefits for its people.
