UK SAF Take-up Likely to Miss 2025 Target, Data Suggests
New data from the Department for Transport (DfT) indicates that the United Kingdom is unlikely to meet its first annual mandate for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in 2025. The figures, which cover most of this year, show a slower pace of SAF production and blending than officials anticipated. As governments push airlines toward lower-emission operations, the discrepancy between targets and actual uptake raises questions about how quickly the aviation sector can decarbonise and what reforms are needed to accelerate progress.
What the data shows
The DfT’s production and blending data for 2025 reveals that SAF share in overall aviation fuel used remains below the level required by the government’s inaugural mandate. While SAF has grown in visibility and supply in recent years, the pace of expansion appears to be constrained by production capacity, supply chains, and higher costs relative to conventional jet fuel. The official statistics suggest that, unless there is a rapid acceleration in SAF production or policy levers are adjusted, the 2025 target will not be achieved.
Key drivers behind the slow uptake
- Supply constraints: SAF production in the UK and Europe remains reliant on feedstock availability, processing capacity, and access to compatible certification schemes. Bottlenecks at refineries and blending facilities limit the volume that can be deployed at airports.
- Costs and market incentives: SAF typically commands a premium over conventional fuel. While policies such as mandates, grants, and potential tax incentives aim to close the price gap, the financial case for airlines is sensitive to fuel prices and demand forecasts.
- Infrastructure and logistics: The distribution network for SAF—blending at airports, storage, and supply contracts—needs scale and standardisation to attract wider airline participation.
- Policy design and signal: Mandates provide a clear target, but progress depends on how the requirements evolve, how compliance is measured, and how the rules accommodate aviation demand fluctuations post-pandemic.
Implications for policy and industry
If the 2025 target is not met, policymakers may reassess the pace of SAF adoption and consider complementary measures. Possible actions include expanding incentives for SAF producers, extending mandates to higher blends, and improving procurement frameworks for airlines seeking to meet their obligations. For the industry, the shortfall underscores the importance of securing long-term investment in SAF supply chains and encouraging collaboration across the value chain—from feedstock growers to refiners and airline operators.
What this means for emissions and consumers
SAF is a critical tool for reducing aviation emissions with near-term impact. A slower uptake could slow the sector’s emissions trajectory unless counterbalanced by other measures, such as operational efficiency improvements, advances in battery and electric regional aviation, or alternative propulsion research. Consumers should expect continued dialogue on how SAF costs are absorbed, whether through government support, or through airlines passing some of the costs to ticket prices as the market matures.
Looking ahead
Officials and industry stakeholders will closely monitor 2025 outcomes as they shape the next phase of decarbonisation policy. If SAF production ramps up in the coming years, the UK could close the gap between mandate and reality, delivering meaningful emissions reductions while supporting a domestic aviation industry transition. In the meantime, ongoing collaboration, transparent reporting, and scalable investment in SAF infrastructure will be essential to unlocking faster uptake and achieving longer-term climate goals.
