UK SAF mandate at a glance
The UK government set a first annual mandate to increase the share of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) used by airlines operating in or departing from the country. The goal is to decarbonize air travel by gradually expanding SAF uptake. Yet new production data from the Department for Transport (DfT) covering most of 2025 suggests the sector is not on track to meet the target. The signals point to a gradual ramp rather than a rapid leap, with implications for policy design and industry planning.
What the latest data show
Official figures indicate that SAF availability and consumption are expanding, but at a pace that appears insufficient to reach the mandated share by year-end. The gap reflects several interlinked factors, including supply constraints from producers, higher production costs, and the time lag between policy announcements and commercial-scale adoption. While some airlines have begun integrating SAF blends into regular operations, the overall take-up remains below the mandated trajectory, according to the DfT.
Why the shortfall is happening
Supply constraints: SAF production capacity in the UK and Europe has grown but remains limited relative to demand. Most SAF is currently produced from imported feedstocks or under licenses that require specialized supply chains. Ongoing ramp-ups take time, and permitting or feedstock issues can create bottlenecks.
Cost pressures: SAF typically carries a premium over conventional Jet A-1 fuel. Even with carbon pricing and potential subsidies, the economics of SAF depend on price signals and reliable incentives. Airlines weigh the near-term financial impact against long-term decarbonization goals, often opting for cautious procurement strategies.
Policy and planning lag: Mandates, incentives, and reporting rules need robust enforcement and transparency. Operators must adapt to new compliance regimes, reporting requirements, and the administrative burden of tracking SAF usage. These steps, while essential for policy credibility, can slow deployment in the short run.
Logistical integration: Blending SAF into existing refueling operations requires changes at airports and along supply chains. As airports update infrastructure and fuel-management systems, there can be short-term frictions that limit immediate uptake.
What this means for the UK’s climate goals
The SAF mandate is a central part of the UK’s aviation decarbonization strategy. Missing the 2025 target risks undermining momentum and signaling a need for policy recalibration. However, the data also highlight a path forward: patient scaling, targeted support for producers, and infrastructure investments can unlock higher SAF volumes in the medium term.
Policy options and industry responses
To close the gap, policymakers could consider expanding incentives for SAF production and consumption, clarifying lifecycle carbon accounting, and streamlining approvals for new projects. Industry players may respond by prioritizing SAF supply deals, investing in production facilities, and accelerating SAF delivery at major UK hubs. Collaborative pilots and visibility around pricing futures could de-risk investment and stimulate broader adoption.
What to watch next
Key indicators to monitor include monthly SAF blend ratios at UK airports, announcements of new UK-based SAF plants, and changes in policy subsidies or mandates. If the government tightens the target or introduces interim milestones, the industry will adjust procurement and investment plans accordingly. The ultimate test will be whether supply chains, pricing structures, and regulatory frameworks align to sustain higher SAF uptake in the years ahead.
