Overview: Chiefs on a Christmas Week Challenge
Thursday Night Football delivers a divisional showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Denver Broncos. The most notable twist for Week 17 is the Chiefs’ quarterback situation: Chris Oladokun will start at quarterback, altering the typical Chiefs offense you’re used to seeing. The spread sits around 13.5 points, a sizable gap that has bettors weighing the usual Chiefs home-field advantage against volatility from a backup quarterback scenario. For Denver, this is a chance to pile up late-season momentum and potentially slow a high-powered offense, while for Kansas City, the question becomes how protective the staff is of its future assets and how the game script unfolds with a new QB under center.
Key Betting Angles
When a game features a backup QB, the market often tilts toward conservative play-calling and a heavier reliance on the running game and defense. Here are the top angles to consider:
- Spread and Cover: A 13.5-point spread is the dominant number. If Oladokun is limited in his first major NFL action, expect the Chiefs to lean on the run game and short, high-percentage throws. Denver can keep things close with a strong defensive effort and a few explosive plays from their own offense. The best approach is often a lean toward Denver +13.5 or, if you’re confident in a defensive grind, a live-bet strategy as the game unfolds.
- Total (Over/Under): With a backup QB, the pace might be slower, and scoring could dip by a few points. Consider the under if weather or disciplined defense comes into play. If Oladokun appears comfortable and the Chiefs move the ball efficiently on early drives, the over remains a possibility dependent on Denver’s ability to answer with a score of their own.
- Team Props: Look for rushing attempts and yards from the Chiefs’ running back committee and any early attempts at short completions to ease Oladokun into the game. Broncos players who show up as playmakers in limited targets or red-zone opportunities can present value as live bets.
- Game Script Scenarios: If Denver can force a few short-field opportunities or keep the Chiefs’ possession times balanced, they can stay within the number. Conversely, if Oladokun starts hot and Kansas City scores on opening drives, the spread pressure grows but the Chiefs can still cover with a late field goal or defensive stop.
Picks & Best Bets
Based on the current line and the potential volatility with a rookie-like performance from Oladokun, here are thoughtful bets to consider:
- Broncos +13.5 (Bet to cover): The edge comes from the Chiefs’ potential to win by margins smaller than the spread as the rookie QB settles in. Denver’s defense can force slower possessions and create a few turnovers or short drives for a backdoor cover.
- Under 45.5 (or 46 depending on line): Slow scoring with a backup quarterback and stiff Broncos defense can keep points scarce in the first half and through the middle of the game.
- Chiefs team total under if the market expects a rookie-like performance from Oladokun; a conservative approach could limit KC’s scoring early.
For those chasing a more dynamic angle, consider live-betting opportunities. If Denver’s defense clamps down in the early quarters, the live odds may swing toward the under and a potential backdoor for an adjusted spread late in the game. If Oladokun gains confidence and KC’s drive efficiency improves, the game could tilt toward a higher-scoring finish than expected, albeit still within the realm of a 13-point or greater victory for Kansas City.
Final Thoughts
Thursday night offers a unique test: a playoff-hungry Chiefs team with a plan A that isn’t fully deployed, and a Broncos squad looking to finish strong. The combination of a big spread and a rookie-like starter creates a market rich with positional bets, live angles, and strategic risk-taking. If you’re crafting a Week 17 NFL bets slate, this game deserves inclusion for its blend of volatility and potential for a cover by Denver with the right defensive game plan, or a disciplined Chiefs performance that simply grinds out a win with Oladokun managing the offense efficiently.
