Overview: A Disastrous Rainfall Season in the Horn of Africa
The October–December 2025 rainy season has essentially failed across large parts of Somalia, with eastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia also reporting severe deficits. Experts warn that recovery through December’s late-season rains is unlikely, and food security risks are mounting rapidly. This pattern of failed rains compounds an already fragile humanitarian context, threatening millions who rely on rainfall for crops, livestock, and drinking water.
Why This Matters for Somalia
In Somalia, agriculture and pastoral livelihoods are acutely sensitive to seasonal rains. When the October–December period underperforms, households lose harvest income and livestock productivity declines, triggering price spikes for staple foods and reducing households’ ability to meet basic needs. The current trend is likely to push vulnerable populations deeper into acute malnutrition, with children and pastoralist communities bearing the brunt.
Key Impacts to Monitor
- Rising food prices and diminishing household purchasing power
- Loss of livestock assets and reduced pastoral mobility
- Water scarcity and deteriorating livestock body condition scores
- Increased vulnerability to disease and higher child malnutrition rates
Urgent Actions The Region Needs Now
The window for rapid, life-saving action is shrinking. Humanitarian agencies, governments, and partners must align on an urgent response plan that combines immediate lifesaving aid with longer-term resilience measures.
Scale-Up Emergency Assistance
Immediate food assistance, cash transfers, and nutrition interventions are essential to prevent a sharp deterioration in household food security. Targeted support must reach the most vulnerable groups—children under five, pregnant and lactating women, the elderly, and displaced populations—while ensuring access to clean water and essential health services.
Support Livelihoods and Livestock Markets
Pastoral and agro-pastoral communities need veterinary support, feed provisions where feasible, and safe restocking programs to preserve livelihoods once pastoral conditions improve. Diversifying income sources and maintaining livestock mobility are critical to reduce exposure to shocks.
Strengthen Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH)
With rainfall deficits, boreholes and wells risk drying up. Rapid WASH interventions, including water trucking where necessary and maintenance of water points, are vital to prevent disease outbreaks and ensure communities have access to safe drinking water during the lean season.
Protect the Most Vulnerable Through Social Safety Nets
Cash transfers and food assistance must be scaled with flexible targeting to reach households forced to sell assets or reduce meal frequency. Strengthening social protection schemes can cushion the shock and support early recovery once rains return.
What Governments and Partners Can Do Now
Policy makers, donors, and humanitarian actors should commit to a comprehensive, multi-year response plan that addresses both the immediate crisis and longer-term climate resilience. This includes pledging funding, coordinating logistics for rapid aid delivery, and investing in early warning systems and drought-resilient farming and livestock practices.
Early Warning, Preparedness, and Coordination
Invest in meteorological monitoring and community-based early warning systems to detect drought signals sooner. Cross-border coordination among Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia can optimize resource allocation and allow for synchronized assistance that covers affected corridors and vulnerable border communities.
Resilience Through Climate-Smart Interventions
Promote drought-tolerant crops, water harvesting techniques, and climate-smart pastoral management. Community-led adaptation initiatives can shorten response times and increase local ownership of resilience measures.
Conclusion: A Call to Action
The October–December 2025 rainfall failure is a stark reminder that climate variability and slow-onset droughts threaten progress on food security in the Horn of Africa. The time to act is now—rapid humanitarian aid, smart livelihood support, and resilient, climate-informed policies are essential to protect lives, preserve livelihoods, and prevent a broader humanitarian catastrophe in Somalia and the wider region.
