Overview: A fragile peace in Fezzan falters
Southern Libya’s Fezzan region, long characterized by a tenuous balance among tribal groups, militias, and external actors, is facing renewed strains. After six years of relative stability following the Benghazi-based Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) takeover, recent clashes and spiking violence have unsettled local governance and security. The upheaval threatens not only somber daily life but also the illicit economies that have flourished in the void left by weak state presence.
How tensions feed illicit economies
In areas where formal authority is weak, illicit economies—smuggling, contraband fuel, human trafficking, and illegal mining—often fill gaps in consumer demand and employment. Fezzan’s vast deserts, porous borders, and cross-border networks have historically made it a corridor for illicit trade. When security falters, gangs and militias can intensify revenue extraction, impose new taxes, or vertically integrate into smuggling routes. Local traders report shifting routes and new checkpoints, creating an environment where illicit profits can rebound even as legitimate commerce slows.
Smuggling networks adapt to instability
Smuggling remains a core facet of Fezzan’s illicit economy. Fuel, cigarettes, and consumer goods frequently move through informal networks that cross Mali, Niger, and Chad. Instability disrupts formal supply chains, prompting a pivot to flexible, always-on networks that can weather patrols and shifting loyalties. The result is a cycle where violence begets higher enforcement, which in turn expedites diversification into other illicit streams, including arms and migrants’ trafficking on less visible routes.
Impact on livelihoods and governance
Residents in border towns and desert settlements face a paradox: the same economy that sustains livelihoods during crises can also fund conflict. Local shopkeepers, transporters, and service workers may benefit briefly from the increased cash flow tied to illicit activity, but the broader consequences are deleterious. Public services, already stretched thin by years of governance gaps, struggle to respond to health, education, and security needs. Confidence in state institutions erodes as militias claim more influence over daily life, complicating efforts to restore formal governance once stability returns.
Regional and international dimensions
Fezzan sits at a crossroads of regional volatility, with neighboring countries’ interests often intersecting with local ambitions. External actors seeking to profit from the region’s resource-rich, borderland geography can inadvertently sustain illicit economies. International attention, aid effectiveness, and diplomacy must grapple with how to deter illicit trade while supporting legitimate development projects. A coordinated strategy focusing on border security, economic diversification, and community-led governance could reduce the appeal of illicit networks and provide alternate livelihoods.
Policy implications and paths forward
Experts argue that sustainable progress hinges on a dual approach: strengthening security to deter crime while unlocking legitimate economic opportunities. Concrete steps include: enhancing local governance capacity, improving border surveillance with community involvement, supporting formal markets (trade, agriculture, tourism), and delivering targeted aid that reaches vulnerable households. Importantly, any plan must be culturally informed, inclusive of tribal and local authorities, and aligned with regional stability efforts to prevent a relapse into conflict-driven cycles of illicit activity.
What success looks like
Success in Fezzan would mean a balanced ecosystem where lawful commerce thrives, security is credible, and communities can anticipate predictable futures. This would entail a reduction in the relative appeal of illicit economies, a measurable increase in legitimate employment, and strengthened confidence in governance structures. International partners can play a constructive role by funding transparent customs reform, supporting local mediators, and coordinating with regional security architectures to keep Fezzan on a path toward stability.
