Unpopular, Diffuse Power, and a Search for Relevance
As Mahmoud Abbas marks his 90th birthday, the Palestinian Authority (PA) finds itself at a crossroads that could redefine political leadership across the Palestinian territories. Abbas remains the face of the PA in the West Bank, where he maintains a brutal hold on formal authority. Yet his actual influence has eroded, both domestically and in Gaza, where rival factions and a shattered social order demand a voice in any postwar reconstruction and political settlement.
The paradox is stark. Abbas presides over a system that still clings to security apparatuses, budgetary control, and international recognition, but his grip appears increasingly brittle. Public opinion polls in the West Bank reflect deep fatigue with a leadership seen as corrupt, insulated from ordinary life, and unable to deliver on the promise of a viable state. In Gaza, where Hamas governs with its own set of rules and improvisations, Abbas’s authority is even more tenuous. The practical implication is clear: a postwar Gaza cannot be stabilized or rebuilt with a leadership that cannot demonstrate broad legitimacy or a clear path to reconciliation.
The West Bank vs. Gaza: A Geographic and Political Rift
The PA’s power base remains concentrated in the West Bank, where security coordination with Israel and limited economic gains have kept a fragile order in place. But the Gaza Strip has evolved into a separate political reality since 2007, when Hamas seized control in a violent power shift that fractured Palestinian governance. Abbas’s inability to project power across the entire territory has created incentives for new actors—local representatives, civil society figures, and diaspora voices—to fill the leadership vacuum.
In Gaza, reconstruction needs are immense, and the population demands accountability, jobs, and reliable public services after repeated conflicts. Abbas’s absence at the drawing table in Gaza—whether as mediator, donor liaison, or policy driver—underscores a larger problem: the Palestinian political system, as it currently operates, lacks both the unity and the momentum necessary to translate international aid and reconciliation talk into tangible gains for ordinary people.
Postwar Realities: What Abbas Wants and What Gaza Requires
Analysts suggest that Abbas’s strategy centers on maintaining a modicum of stability in the West Bank while avoiding a full confrontation with Hamas and other factions across Palestinian society. He has repeatedly signaled a readiness to engage in a reconciliatory process, but practical steps have remained modest, cautious, and often delayed. In Gaza, the needs are urgent: a credible reconstruction framework, credible governance, and a unified political voice that can negotiate with donors and neighboring states on behalf of Palestinians.
Without a credible path to reconciliation and a transparent mechanism for governance, Abbas risks appearing, at best, as a caretaker and, at worst, as a relic of a bygone era. The postwar period demands leadership that can coordinate international aid, restore basic services, and reduce repetitive cycles of violence. Abbas’s ability to play that role hinges on two factors: his capacity to adapt his leadership model to a more plural and federalized Palestinian political landscape, and his willingness to cede, or at least share, authority with new actors who command legitimacy on the ground in Gaza.
International Stakes: Donors, Diplomacy, and the Path Forward
Donor nations and regional actors watch with growing concern as Palestinian governance remains fractured. The international community’s willingness to fund reconstruction and reform hinges on a credible, representative leadership that can shepherd a durable peace process. Abbas’s age and the perception of entrenched power make it crucial for him to demonstrate a practical, deliverable plan for Gaza if he wishes to remain a central figure in any future arrangements.
Ultimately, the question is not only whether Abbas can reclaim influence in Gaza, but whether he can reform a political system that has long prioritized survival over progress. The coming months will test whether he can bridge the West Bank–Gaza divide, secure support from rival factions, and translate international support into tangible improvements for Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip and beyond.
Key Takeaways
- Abbas’s waning popularity in Palestinian territories complicates any attempt to govern across both West Bank and Gaza.
- Gaza’s postwar reconstruction needs demand new leadership and a credible reconciliation framework.
- International donors require a representative, accountable path forward for any sustained aid package.
